Sam Avellone
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As the regular season winds down, postseason motivation becomes an intriguing angle to incorporate into your handicap. Division titles are still in play for a number of teams. There are also quite a few teams still competing for bowl eligibility that will play against opponents who have already achieved postseason eligibility or conference title berths. Other teams have been eliminated from postseason competition all together, while James Madison and Virginia law-makers continue to battle against the NCAA to remove its postseason ban in lieu of its undefeated season.
With so much intrigue around college football this week, let’s put together a parlay with juicy odds in hopes of cashing a big one if everything plays out in our favor. Plus, make sure to check out all of our CFB Week 12 predictions.
Indiana Hoosiers alternate spread -6.5 (+134)
Ohio State Buckeyes alternate spread -33.5 (+180)
South Carolina Gamecocks moneyline (-125)
NCAAF Mega Parlay Odds: +1079
Indiana Hoosiers -6.5 (+134) over Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans are 2-5-1 ATS as an underdog, and I do not expect that to improve this week against the Hoosiers. The Spartans are battered and bruised with a plethora of injuries, leading to their offense being operated by Katin Houser – who has the third-worst PPF passer grade of all Big Ten quarterbacks to take a snap this season. He has 9 turnover-worthy plays in 146 dropbacks and is averaging just 5.8 yards per completion in 9 games. While the Hoosiers have just 1 win since the end of September, they have covered in 3 straight – including an outright win over Wisconsin while catching 7.5. Their offense has been especially effective recently given they out-gained Penn State in Happy Valley and scored a season-high 45 points against Illinois last week.
This offensive success can be attributed to Brendan Sorsby, who has 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions through the air and 3 touchdowns on the ground in Indiana’s 3 most recent games. Sorsby and the Hoosiers figure to continue their offensive success against a Michigan State defense that is 94th in PPA, 103rd in success rate and 118th in points per opportunity allowed since Week 6. I don’t expect a very motivated effort from Michigan State in this spot, so let’s take the alternate spread of -6.5 with Indiana. Hoosiers by a touchdown or more.
Check out our Indiana vs Michigan State predictions
Ohio State Buckeyes -33.5 (+180) over Minnesota Golden Gophers
It seems silly to invest in Ohio State the week before The Game against a team fighting for bowl eligibility, not to mention selling points for an increased payout. However, Ohio State should control this game at home against Minnesota just like it did last week against Michigan State. The Golden Gophers will likely struggle to score against this Buckeye defense, which ranks 4th nationally in PPA, 6th in success rate and 7th in points per opportunity allowed since Week 6. For reference, the Gopher offense is 121st in PPA and 122nd in success rate, and it is 108th in standard down PPA – which means Minnesota is going to be in obvious passing and third-and-long situations often. That does not bode well for its offense. Athan Kaliakmanas has not been effective as a passer, as the Gophers are outside the top 115 in PPA per pass in non-garbage time since Week 6 while Kaliakmanas has 11 turnover-worthy plays and completes less than 52% of his passes.
Similar to the advantage Ohio State’s defense has against Minnesota’s offense, the Buckeyes should be able to score at-will against the Gopher defense. Minnesota is 97th in defensive PPA and 108th in points per opportunity allowed since Week 6 playing against teams such as Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State and Iowa in addition to Michigan – who put up 50 on the Gophers in Minnesota. I fully expect Ohio State to name its score in this game despite the massive lookahead to Michigan next week. For what it’s worth, last time the Buckeyes played at home before a road trip to Ann Arbor, they beat a ranked Michigan State team by nearly 50 points. Obviously Ohio State is a different team now, but it does show Ryan Day and the Buckeyes do not let the anticipation of their rivalry game cloud their preparation for the game prior.
Check out our expert’s CFB Week 12 best bets
South Carolina ML (-125) over Kentucky Wildcats
The term “raucous environment” is used quite often in the sport content world, but I have no doubt Williams-Brice Stadium will be just that on Saturday night in Columbia, South Carolina – an environment in which the Gamecocks thrive at home. They have the quarterback advantage with Spencer Rattler, who completes about 13% more of his passes than Devin Leary, and has 5 less turnover-worth plays according to PFF. Furthermore, Rattler is far more efficient under pressure, of which he’s faced more than Leary. For what it’s worth, Leary leads in the SEC in interceptions and turnover-worthy plays overall, while Kentucky’s top 3 pass catchers make up half of the 6 wide receivers with the highest drop rates in the SEC.
Defensively, Kentucky is 122nd in havoc created since Week 6. The Wildcats are 119th in PPA per pass and 133rd in pass success rate allowed in recent weeks, in addition to being 119th in points per opportunity allowed in non-garbage time since the beginning of October. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 24th in points per opportunity with top 35 marks in both PPA per pass and pass success rate in that time. Admittedly, Kentucky’s schedule has been a bit more difficult in that span of time, but the Wildcats are already bowl eligible coming off a disappointing loss against Alabama in their final home game of the season before a meeting with their in-state rival and top 10-ranked Louisville next week. South Carolina needs 2 wins to earn bowl eligibility, and I certainly expect them to utilize the passion of the fans, the elusivity of running back Mario Anderson, and the sure hands of Xavier Legette to lead them to victory over Kentucky.
Don’t miss our College football Week 12 underdog picks!
