Sam Avellone
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Like last week, college football Week 12 offers a decent Friday card with 2 power conference matchups and 2 Group of 5 matchups. The slate kicks off at 8:00 pm ET when UNT travels to UTSA as a slight favorite and Colorado State hosts Wyoming as a home favorite of close to double-digits. UCLA travels to Washington after beating Iowa at home last Friday, and the nightcap kicks off at 10:15 pm ET when Arizona hosts Houston in a new-look Big 12 matchup. While there are only 4 games to choose from, 2 particular angles jumped out to me more than the rest. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to check our college football picks and CFB predictions for all of Week 12’s biggest matchups.
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners Over 72 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook and available at the time of publishing. Playable to 72.5.
This is a massive total, but these teams are built to surpass it. There have been 4 FBS matchups with a total of at least 70 points this season, 2 of which were North Texas games. All 4 of those games went over the total, and there’s a good chance it happens for a 5th time on Friday night. North Texas and UTSA both play at a blistering pace, ranking top 10 in seconds per play and top 25 in plays per game this season. Neither offense is elite by any stretch of the imagination, but both rely heavily on the pass and have good matchups against porous defenses in this particular game. For reference, UNT and UTSA are outside the top 80 in opposing pass PPA and outside the top 110 in opposing pass explosiveness. Neither defense excels at preventing scoring either, as the Roadrunners and Mean Green are outside the top 110 in opposing points per game and points per scoring opportunity. These offenses should have plenty of success in scoring situations considering each of them has averaged at least 4 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line in the last 6 weeks. For what it’s worth, every North Texas road game has surpassed this number, while UTSA’s last 2 games have reached at least 90 total points.
Make sure you also read our college football best bets for Saturday’s action from our top expert!
Houston Cougars +2 over Arizona Wildcats (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to pick ’em.
This late-night Big 12 matchup involves 2 teams going in opposite directions. The visiting Houston Cougars have won 3 of their last 4, while the Arizona Wildcats have failed to win or cover since their Week 5 game at Utah. Rather than trying to catch a falling knife with Arizona, I prefer to fade the Wildcats despite being at home following a mutual bye week. Houston’s defense is arguably the best unit on the field in this matchup, as the Cougars have held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 20 points. Furthermore, Houston is top 6 in the Big 12 in scoring defense, yielding under 25 points per game against conference opponents. Arizona, on the other hand, allows its conference opponents to score more than 33 points per game. The Wildcats are 116th in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 6, and they are in the bottom 10 nationally in opposing points per scoring opportunity in that period of time.
While Houston leaves a bit to be desired offensively, the run-heavy Cougars should find space on the ground against an Arizona defense that is outside the top 95 in rush PPA, success rate and explosiveness since Week 6. With a slight edge in yards per play margin and turnover margin, I like Houston against this uninspiring Arizona squad.
Read our full Houston vs Arizona prediction
