Sam Avellone
Show Bio
Week 12 is upon us, which means we are just 2 weeks away from the end of the college football regular season. Most eyes will be on the top teams as they compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but many other teams still have quite a bit to play for with bowl eligibility on the line. That battle for bowl eligibility certainly presents some value this week on the betting board. Let’s check out this week’s best underdog bets.
Odds available at MGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Week 12 best underdog bets
Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5 (-110) over Iowa State
Iowa State is not a team I am excited to lay points with, as the Cyclones struggle to move the ball. They average just 5.09 yards per play, which ranks 102nd out of 131 teams, and they rank outside the top 100 in both drive efficiency and touchdown rate per Football Outsiders. Furthermore, they have scored more than 21 points against just 2 Power 5 opponents this season. Texas Tech averages over 33 points per game, so the Cyclones will need to manufacture points if they want to keep their bowl eligibility hopes alive. That will start with maintaining possession of the ball. The issue is, the Cyclones do not have a reliable rushing attack – which puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Hunter Dekkers.
As a result, Dekkers has thrown 13 interceptions and the Cyclones rank 126th in turnover rate per Football Outsiders. Defensively, the Cyclones are solid. However, they rank behind the Red Raiders in PFF’s tackling metric and outside the top 65. That will most likely play a factor in this contest, as Texas Tech has had great success on the ground in recent weeks. In fact, the Red Raiders have rushed for at least 195 yards in 3 of their last 4 games behind 2 running backs in SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks – both of whom rank in the top 60 nationally in missed tackles forced (66 combined).
The Red Raiders sit at 5-5 with just 2 weeks left, which means they need only 1 win to earn bowl eligibility. With Oklahoma on the schedule next week, this game figures to be a more realistic shot at earning that 6th win. For what it is worth, Iowa State has struggled in close games, as the Cyclones are 1-5 SU and ATS in games with spreads between -3.5 and +3.5. It would not surprise me to see the Red Raiders win outright here, but taking the points feels like the smarter bet.
Arkansas Razorbacks ML (+115) over Ole Miss
The Arkansas Razorbacks will play their final home game of the season this weekend when they host the Ole Miss Rebels. It has been a disappointing season for the Razorbacks, as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a 3-0 start – but bowl eligibility is still in play for them. They were without quarterback KJ Jefferson in their most recent loss last week, but it seems like he is expected to play this week. He may even have extra motivation in this matchup considering Ole Miss heavily recruited him before he committed to Arkansas.
Defensively, Ole Miss has struggled on the road against SEC opponents. The Rebels allowed Vanderbilt to score 28 points against them in Nashville, which is the most points the Commodores have scored against Power 5 opponents this season, and gave up 73 combined points in back-to-back weeks to LSU and Texas A&M. For what it is worth, Texas A&M’s 28-point performance against Ole Miss was also its highest scoring output against Power 5 opponents this season – just like Vanderbilt.
Ole Miss figures to be a bit flat after blowing a lead against Alabama last week, especially with a matchup against in-state rival Mississippi State on deck. Because Jefferson is expected back in the lineup this week, the Razorbacks seem to have value as they continue to fight for bowl eligibility. Arkansas may also see this as a revenge game, as Ole Miss beat the Razorbacks 52-51 last season in a ranked matchup. This spot points to Arkansas, I think the Razorbacks win outright.
UCLA Bruins ML (+110) over USC
UCLA comes into this game off their first home loss of the season, but it was a predictable flat spot for the Bruins with this game against USC on deck. Despite the loss, this is a buy spot on the Bruins – as they seem to have the more dependable rushing attack in this matchup. USC, unfortunately, lost its leading rusher in Travis Dye last week. While the Trojans have talented runners down the entire depth chart, Dye’s absence will still be felt.
UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet and dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson have been very effective runners this season, combining for over 1600 yards and 20 touchdowns with an average of more than 6.8 yards per carry. Furthermore, Charbonett leads all running backs with at least 150 carries in yards after contact per attempt, per PFF. USC ranks 121st in defensive success rate against the run and 123rd in opposing EPA per rush, so the Trojans will likely struggle to contain the Bruins rushing attack.
The Rose Bowl should be electric on Saturday night. This game figures to be a high-scoring contest that has a real chance to come down to the very last possession. That being said, I think UCLA’s defense will provide a little bit more resistance than USC’s. Give me the highly-motivated underdog playing in front of its home fans for the final time this season.
<div class=”ssg-scm offer” data-affiliate=”dk” data-tags=”nfl” data-action=”pwnews”></div>
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
