Sam Avellone
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Week 11 of the college football regular season marks the return of MACtion. On Tuesday and Wednesday, 4 total MAC conference games will be played on national TV – starting with Bowling Green vs Central Michigan and Miami (OH) vs Ball State on Tuesday night. Despite the limited slate, I identified 2 best bets on the Tuesday night slate, and hope to cash both of them to start Week 11 on the right foot.
Make sure you check Pickswise throughout the week for all of our college football picks and predictions on Week 11’s biggest matchups!
College Football Week 11 Tuesday best bets
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing
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Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Under 48.5 (-110)
Central Michigan’s offense has been bitten by the injury bug. The Chippewas starting quarterback, backup quarterback and leading receiver are all expected to be out for this game, which means third-string freshman quarterback Tyler Jefferson will likely draw the start again. He completed just 7 of 17 passes for 62 yards and an interception against Miami (OH), and now faces a Bowling Green defense that is 7th in PPA and has yielded just 3.06 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time since Week 6. Bowling Green also ranks 4th nationally in opposing red zone touchdown rate, just behind Tennessee, Northern Illinois and Ohio State.
Central Michigan was already a run-heavy team, but will likely become more of one without leading receiver Evan Boyd in the mix – especially with dual-threat Jefferson under center. Neither one of these offenses is particularly explosive, and Bowling Green has underperformed in opposing scoring situations. The Eagles averaged only 3.52 points per scoring opportunity over the last 5 weeks, and they are 90th in red zone touchdown rate this season. I don’t see an easy path to points for either team in this matchup, and weather could affect the overall offensive production given the rainy and windy conditions in the current forecast. Playable to 48.
Read our full-game prediction for Bowling Green vs Central Michigan
Miami (OH) RedHawks -12 over Ball State (-110)
The RedHawks have been on a roll in recent weeks, earning double-digit victories over Eastern Michigan, Ohio and Central Michigan in their last 3 contests. Their most recent win was a 46-7 demolition of Central Michigan, a game in which the RedHawks accumulated over 500 total yards while holding the Chippewas to just 168. They averaged more than 7 yards per carry on 39 attempts, as the RedHawks won the time of possession battle by about 6 and a half minutes.
Miami may not control this game from beginning to end like it did its last time out, but the RedHawks should be able to beat Ball State and cover this number. Miami is simply more efficient on a down-to-down basis, ranking 27th nationally in yards per play margin compared to 131st for Ball State. Furthermore, the RedHawks are 22nd in offensive PPA and average 4.75 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time since Week 6, while their defense is 19th in PPA and has given up an average of just 3 points per scoring opportunity in that time. Playable to -13.5.
