Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 10 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests taking place.
Saturday’s slate looks to be another good one and offers a ton of compelling matchups. There is value to be had across the board, including in the Group of 5. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
Arkansas ML (+150)
Tulane ML (-114)
Southern Miss ML (+172)
Parlay odds: +1171
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with two underdogs on the money line, and one as a slight favorite. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 11 matchups!
Arkansas ML (+150) over LSU
This is the best situational spot of the week, with LSU fresh off a season-defining win over Alabama while Arkansas just looked awful in a loss to Liberty at home. Therefore, you can expect an inspired effort from the Razorbacks in what should be a sleepy road spot for the Tigers. LSU should score plenty of points here, but it’s not like defense is the strength of this Hogs team anyway. The advantage for Arkansas lies on the offensive side of the ball, where the Razorbacks are 19th in EPA margin, 23rd in rushing success rate and 10th in EPA per pass. On the other side, LSU is just 87th in EPA per rush and 76th in rushing success rate. Look for the home side to control the line of scrimmage and make life easier for KJ Jefferson under center. I love the Hogs in this spot.
Check out our full LSU vs Arkansas predictions
Tulane ML (-114) over UCF
Despite the fact that they’ve been excellent all season long, the betting market is still underrating Tulane. The Green Wave are the best ATS team in the nation to this point, checking in at 8-1 against the number. Now they’ll take on a UCF team that was fortunate to escape last week with a win over Memphis.
Both teams are similar in that they’ll want to run the ball often, but the Tulane defense is far better suited to stop the run, ranking in the top 25 in the nation in opponent yards per rush. Tulane is also 16th in net points per drive on defense, as teams have an extremely difficult time scoring touchdowns once they cross the 40-yard line. UCF’s defense is extremely poor against the pass, which should give Michael Pratt opportunities to take advantage of the Knights’ secondary. Tulane look good value here as a slight home favorite.
Check out our full UCF vs Tulane predictions
Southern Miss ML (+172) over Coastal Carolina
To round out this mega parlay, we’re going with Southern Miss to beat Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have been winning a ton of close games this season thanks to the stellar play of Grayson McCall. However, McCall was announced out for this game earlier in the week, and I still don’t think the line has adjusted enough to this fact. McCall has been essentially the entire Coastal offense, a major reason why the Chanticleers rank top 10 in passing success rate and EPA per pass. And while Bryce Carpenter is a decent backup option at quarterback, it’s hard to replace the best QB in the Group of 5. Southern Miss has an excellent defense and scoring on Coastal Carolina hasn’t been difficult all season long. Give me the Eagles to pick up a massive road win.
Be sure to get our college football Week 11 best bets – we have gone 17-10-1 over the past 9 weeks!
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