Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 10 of the college football season is behind us, and it was a slate that saw most of the favorites take care of business. However, we’re back to having an exciting slate on tap this week — featuring a number of important games across a myriad of conferences. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 11 schedule with my weekly best bets column. We’ve had a solid last couple of weeks in this column, so let’s hope this momentum finally translates into getting a 3-0 card this week!
We have a big time showdown in the SEC to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a couple of games in the Big 10 and Big 12 that I see value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for Week 11 on Saturday.
Ole Miss Rebels +3 vs Georgia Bulldogs (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend in terms of SEC and College Football Playoff implications, which points me in the direction of a lower-scoring affair between two of the best defenses in the nation. Part of the reason why I’m projecting a lower-scoring game on Saturday is that this clearly isn’t your typically elite Georgia team under head coach Kirby Smart. As has been proven on multiple occasions already this season — most notably in unconvincing wins over Florida and Kentucky — the Bulldogs are uncharacteristically sloppy, don’t look as connected on both sides of the ball and have struggled with both starting off slow and putting teams away this season. Things won’t get any easier for this group against an Ole Miss defense that is quietly one of the best in the nation, sitting at 2nd nationally in success rate allowed, 4th in EPA margin and tops in the country in net points per drive. If the Rebels’ defensive line can consistently generate pressure on Carson Beck, the veteran quarterback will likely turn the ball over at least once — as he’s thrown multiple interceptions in 4 of the last 5 games, giving him 11 interceptions on the season.
On the other side, this Georgia defense isn’t quite as dominant as what we’ve seen from the Bulldogs in year’s past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 10 in pretty much every meaningful metric — including success rate allowed, opponent EPA per rush and 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed. The Bulldogs are going up against an Ole Miss offense that certainly has the potential to be an explosive unit, as we just saw in a 63-point outburst against Arkansas a week ago. With that said, the Rebels offense did struggle when going up against a high-level SEC defensive front in Kentucky, and Jaxson Dart and company will meet some resistance against a Georgia defense that recently dominated the line of scrimmage against Texas. On top of the advantages both defenses should hold in this game, I fully expect both coaches to keep things close to the vest early on and avoid taking chances — especially given the magnitude of this game. Let’s get to the window with the under in Oxford.
Read our full Georgia vs Ole Miss prediction
Kansas Jayhawks +3 vs Iowa State Cyclones (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
One of the best spots on the board this week pits an undervalued Kansas team against an overvalued Iowa State side in this crucial Big 12 matchup. The Jayhawks have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country to this point, as Kansas dropped to 0-5 in one-possession games following a 2-point loss to Kansas State in the Sunflower Showdown back on October 26. Lance Leipold’s group is now just 1-6 against FBS teams, yet only has a -2 point differential on the season. It’s clear that this is a team that is much better than their record, and they’ll likely give their best effort in this game following a much-needed bye week, with a chance to win out and make a bowl game still on the table. It certainly helps matters that Kansas’ offense has been playing much better football in recent weeks, as the Jayhawks have a top 10 offense in both rushing success rate and EPA per rush, while Jalon Daniels has steadily improved over the course of Big 12 play. Conversely, the Iowa State defense is outside the top 80 in both rushing success rate, so the Cyclones could be in trouble from a matchup perspective in this one.
On the other side, this Iowa State team has been a fun story, but the Cyclones were playing with fire for a number of weeks before finally getting burned at home against Texas Tech a week ago. Iowa State should have lost to both Iowa and UCF earlier this season, and they’d likely have at least 3 losses if not for a ridiculous +9 turnover margin on the season. The Cyclones offense is heavily reliant on its top 2 receivers, which could be an issue against a Kansas pass defense that boasts a pair of excellent cornerbacks on the outside. Lastly, Leipold is a whopping 16-7-1 against the spread as a home underdog. With that in mind, I love getting a full field goal with an undervalued Kansas team in this spot, and I think the Jayhawks pull the outright upset.
Read our full Kansas vs Iowa State prediction
Oregon Ducks 1st half -13.5 over Maryland Terrapins (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 14.
Autzen Stadium hosts another Big Ten battle this week and the Ducks should roll at home in this one, albeit in a lower-scoring contest than oddsmakers are projecting on Saturday. Maryland is enduring a difficult season on both sides of the ball, and I don’t expect the Terrapins’ offense (77th in success rate, 70th in net points per drive) to see much success against an Oregon defense that is a top 10 unit against the pass and top 20 in 3rd and 4th down success rate. Oregon’s defensive front is also getting healthier with each passing week, so it will be hard for the Terps to generate consistent success on the ground, as well. On the other side, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is playing some of his best football of the season over the last month, which has put him squarely in the Heisman Trophy conversation. Additionally, the running back duo of Jordan James and Noah Whittington are running well behind an offensive line whose emergence has completely unlocked this elite Oregon offense in Big Ten play.
There have been multiple instances this season when the Ducks have beaten opponents without truly running up the score in the second half. However, what has been a constant this season is the Ducks coming out with a terrific script in the first half, dominating their opponents in the opening two quarters en route to massive halftime leads. Will Stein’s offense should be ready to take advantage of a Maryland defense that is 92nd in passing success rate and generate some explosive plays through the air, even without Tez Johnson in the lineup. Oregon has covered the first half spread in every Big Ten conference game this season, and I’d expect that trend to continue on Saturday, before they lean heavily on the ground game in the second half to salt the game away.
Read our full Maryland vs Oregon prediction
