Sam Avellone
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Another marquee SEC matchup takes place on Saturday afternoon when the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Oxford to take on the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss’ season is on the line in this one, as the Rebels are likely to be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. Meanwhile, Georgia continues to jockey for a top 2 spot in the SEC standings in hopes of returning to the SEC Championship in Atlanta. Given the magnitude of this matchup, I put together a Georgia vs Ole Miss Same Game Parlay and will briefly analyze each leg for you.
Let’s get into the SGP, and don’t forget to check out all of our college football picks and CFB predictions for Week 11’s biggest matchups.
Trevor Etienne (UGA) Over 17.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dominic Lovett (UGA) Over 5.5 receptions (+130)
Jaxson Dart (MISS) 250+ passing yards (-185)
Georgia vs Ole Miss same game parlay odds: +550
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
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Trevor Etienne (UGA) Over 17.5 receiving yards (-115)
Ole Miss’ defense is one of the nation’s best at applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks. The Rebels lead the country in sacks (41) and tackles for loss (94), while ranking 2nd in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 6. Given Carson Beck’s struggles with taking care of the ball in recent weeks, I expect the Georgia quarterback to look for quick passes against the Rebel pressure. Running back Trevor Etienne figures to be one of the beneficiaries of said quick passing game. Etienne had 15 combined receptions for 94 yards in the 3 games prior to last week’s matchup with Florida, which he left late in the first half due to injury, and should attract enough targets in this matchup to get over this total. Furthermore, Etienne has been solid after the catch this season, averaging almost 8 yards after catch per reception according to PFF. For reference, an opposing running back has cleared this number in each of Ole Miss’ last 3 games.
Read our full-game prediction for Georgia vs Ole Miss
Dominic Lovett (UGA) Over 5.5 receptions (+130)
Dominic Lovett operates primarily out of the slot and has a good matchup against the Ole Miss defense on paper. Jadon Canady and John Saunders Jr – Ole Miss’ primary slot defenders – have the lowest coverage grades in the Rebel secondary, allowing 20 receptions on 34 combined targets in slot coverage. Lovett has seen an uptick in targets in recent weeks, as Beck has thrown the ball his way 27 times in Georgia’s last 3 games. Lovett pulled in 16 of those receptions, and has surpassed this number in 2 of Georgia’s 3 road games. Similar to the handicap of Etienne, Lovett should be peppered with targets once again in Oxford against Ole Miss’ aggressive pass rush. For what it’s worth, he is 6th in the SEC in targets and 7th in receptions this season.
Jaxson Dart (MISS) 250+ passing yards (-185)
Jaxson Dart has cleared this number in every game this season. While his performance last year against Georgia was suspect at best, he should have every opportunity to surpass this number once again on Saturday afternoon. Georgia’s defense is one of the nation’s best against the pass, but it has been leaky in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have given up a good bit of explosive passes since their near-loss at Kentucky, and they are 119th in opposing pass explosiveness outside of garbage time since Week 6. Dart leads the SEC in pass yards and yards per attempt, and he ranks 2nd in average depth of target (ADOT) – just behind Florida’s DJ Lagway. Furthermore, Dart leads the conference in each of those 3 aforementioned metrics when pressured, which is a good trait to have against Georgia’s defensive front. Dart also has an explosive group of receivers at his disposal, 3 of which are in the top 15 in the SEC in yards per reception – not including Tre Harris (doubtful for this game). Those 3 receivers – Antwane Wells Jr, Jordan Watkins and Cayden Lee – also rank in the top 25 in the conference in yards after catch per reception.
