Ricky Dimon
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Week 11 in college football did not wait around until Saturday to get the party started. There was MACtion on both Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple more games on Thursday and now Friday night has a trio on offer. Cincinnati (7-2) and 8th-ranked USC (8-1) are among the teams taking the field.
Let’s take a look at Friday’s 3-leg mega parlay.
East Carolina +6.5 (-110)
USC -39.5 alternate spread (+162)
Fresno State vs UNLV Under 59 (-110)
Parlay odds: +855
For this parlay we are going with 1 favorite against an alternate spread, 1 underdog plus the points and an under play. Here is a breakdown of each leg.
East Carolina +6.5 over Cincinnati (-110)
East Carolina has looked good all season long, while Cincinnati is still being overvalued based on its 2021 performance. The Bearcats’ offense has struggled so far; they are 63rd nationally in EPA margin and 71st in EPA per rush. Although the ‘Cats moved the ball pretty well through the air against Navy in their last outing, that part of the attack has been inconsistent at best. This looks like a good matchup for an East Carolina defense that is inside the top 20 in opponents’ yards per carry, EPA per rush and rushing success rate. The Pirates should have a good chance to stymie the Wildcats’ ground game and force Ben Bryant into tough third-down situations. That’s when the ECU defense can really pounce. Bryant certainly isn’t the quarterback that Desmond Ridder was last year, which is part of the reason why Cincinnati has taken a step back. East Carolina should cover and even an outright win is possible.
Check out our full East Carolina vs Cincinnati predictions
USC -39.5 alternate spread over Colorado (+162)
It will be a battle between 2 teams basically on opposite ends of the Pac-12 when USC and Colorado collide on Friday night. The Trojans are in second place in the conference at 6-1, while the Buffaloes are second-to-last at 1-5. Jordan Addison, USC’s star wide receiver, is expected to return after missing 2 games with an unspecified injury. He has racked up 585 yards and 7 touchdowns so far this season. Even without Addison, the Trojans exceeded 40 points twice in a row and have now done so in 7 of 9 games. In other words, they are more than capable of blowing teams out – especially terrible teams like Colorado. The Buffaloes have allowed more than 40 points in 7 of 9 contests this season and are coming off a 39-point loss to Oregon. Don’t be surprised if USC beats them by even more.
Check out our full Colorado vs USC predictions
Fresno State vs UNLV Under 59 (-110)
UNLV’s defense may be unspectacular as a whole, but it is actually quite solid against the pass – ranking 45th nationally in that department. None of the last 4 opponents have thrown for more than 230 yards at their expense. Fresno State’s offense struggles on the ground (86th in FBS in rushing) and the Bulldogs may be forced to try and run it more here if they get shut down through the air. Meanwhile, UNLV is saddled with 1 of the worst offenses in all of college football, headlined by an 11.3 points per game over the last 4 contests. The Rebels now face a Fresno State defense that has improved mightily in recent games – allowing more than 13 points just once in their last 4 contests. The under is 5-3 in Fresno State’s last 8 true road games and has also cashed in 4 of UNLV’s last 6 overall.
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