Sam Avellone
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It is not the flashiest selection of games, but college football Week 11 provides us with a better slate of Friday matchups than we have seen in recent weeks. A couple of power conference contests will take place when Cal makes the cross-country trip to Wake Forest and Iowa crosses the country the other way for a road game at UCLA. In addition to those power conference matchups, Memphis will host Rice and San Diego State will host New Mexico. While the pickings are slim, there are a couple angles that stood out to me more than the rest. Let’s get to the picks!
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College Football Week 11 Friday best bets
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Iowa Hawkeyes -6 over UCLA Bruins (-110)
Traveling two or more time zones has not been kind to college football teams this year, but Iowa should be set up for success in this matchup against UCLA. The Hawkeyes have relied heavily on the run all season long, and that has not changed in recent weeks – as they are 19th in rush rate outside of garbage time since Week 6. Their ground game has been very efficient in that span of time, with top 20 marks in rush PPA and explosiveness and a top 35 mark in rush success rate. UCLA will counter with a rush defense that yields only 100.38 yards per game, but I am skeptical of their ability to stop the Hawkeyes on the ground. Since Week 6, the Bruins rank 89th in opposing rush PPA and 117th in opposing rush success rate outside of garbage time, and their ability to limit scoring has not been great either. The Bruins have given up more than 5.1 points per opposing scoring opportunity in the last 5 weeks, and they have allowed opponents to score on just about 91% of trips into the red zone this season. More than 72% of those trips resulted in opposing touchdowns.
Given the travel situation for Iowa, it may seem like a favorable spot for UCLA. However, the Bruins have lost every home game this season, and all but one of those losses were by double digits. With a yards per play margin that ranks outside the top 80 and a turnover margin outside the top 100, it’s difficult to trust UCLA against an Iowa team that is 40th and 13th in those metrics, respectively. For what it’s worth, the Hawkeyes also have significant advantages over the Bruins in starting field position and on special teams. My power ratings suggest Iowa should be a 10-point favorite in this matchup, so I will lay it with the Hawkeyes in Los Angeles on Friday night. Playable to -7.
Read our full-game prediction on Iowa vs UCLA
Memphis Tigers -4.5 first half over Rice Owls (-110)
Memphis and Rice both experienced surprising results last week, as the Tigers lost on the road at UT San Antonio while the Owls beat Navy at home in their first game with interim coach Pete Alamar. As such, Rice has attracted a lot of money since this line opened, but I don’t agree with it. While Rice has been strong defensively in AAC play by yielding fewer than 24 points per game, the Owls have been abysmal on offense. They rank 131st in PPA outside of garbage time in the last 5 weeks, and they average only 19.4 points and 2.4 touchdowns per game against their conference opponents. Those offensive struggles stem from the inability to finish drives, as Rice has averaged less than 2.9 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time since Week 6 and ranks 132nd in red zone scoring this season. The Owls also are 122nd in turnover margin per game against FBS opponents. It’s going to be tough for them to match the firepower of Memphis’ offense, a unit that averages more than 37 points per conference game and has scored more than 4.5 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line since Week 6. The Tigers also rank 21st in turnover margin per game this season, more than 100 spots better than the Owls.
Rice has yet to win a game on the road this season. In fact, their average margin of defeat away from home is 17.5 points. In the first half of those road games, the Owls averaged only 2.5 points while giving up 14.5. Memphis, on the other hand, averages 17.5 first half points at home while yielding just 9.5. After a disappointing loss, I’m expecting a motivated effort from Memphis early in this game against a Rice team that has struggled mightily on the road. Playable to -5.5.
