Sam Avellone
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Underdogs made some noise in some of the marquee games last week when LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Baylor, Liberty and Iowa all won outright. Northwestern, Auburn, Navy and Nebraska were not fortunate enough to win outright, but they covered their respective spreads and sent bettors home happy. With most bye weeks behind us, Week 11 provides a full slate of college football games to handicap. Let’s dive in and see which underdogs stand out this week.
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
College football Week 11 best underdog bets
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +9.5 (-110) over Michigan State
This is one of those “plug your nose, cover your eyes, and click submit” type of bets. Michigan State laying almost double digits? Not so fast, my friend! Getting double digits with such a low total is always worth considering.
Neither coach will have a hard time motivating his team this week, as Michigan State and Rutgers come into this contest with an overall record of 4-5 and 3 games remaining. That makes this game extremely important for bowl eligibility. Michigan State is obviously the better program historically, but it seems the Spartans are being overrated for their win over Illinois last week. While it was a good win on the road in a tough conference, the Spartans were outgained by almost 150 yards and converted just 3 out of 11 third downs.
Being the home team is surely an advantage for Michigan State, but the Spartans have scored more than 20 points at home just once against conference opponents. Furthermore, they have just 2 straight-up wins against Power 5 opponents – neither of which were by more than 8 points. Rutgers has the better defense in this matchup and should be able to meet Payton Thorne and the Spartans with a bit of resistance, knowing bowl eligibility is on the line. For what it is worth, the Knights rank 40th in EPA per play and 63rd in defensive success rate, while the Spartans rank 101st in EPA per play and 102nd in defensive success rate, per CFBGraphs.
Be sure to check out our full Rutgers vs Michigan State predictions
South Carolina Gamecocks +8.5 (-110) over Florida
Without their best player in running back MarShawn Lloyd, the South Carolina Gamecocks jumped out to a 17-7 lead in the first quarter against Vanderbilt last week and never looked back. Following the 38-27 win, the Gamecocks are bowl eligible at 6-3 and are one win short of surpassing their season win total. Coach Shane Beamer said Lloyd practiced on Wednesday and looked good. Assuming he plays, this would be an invaluable boost to the South Carolina offense, as Florida is vulnerable against the run.
The Gators allow 4.7 yards per rush and 185.33 rush yards per game, ranking outside the top 100 in both categories. They also rank outside the top 100 in EPA per rush and defensive success rate against the run, per CFBGraphs. They are not only vulnerable against the run, though. Florida’s defense ranks outside the top 75 in both EPA per pass and PFF’s pass coverage metric as well. Spencer Rattler has thrown just 1 interception in the last 3 games, so he should be able to take advantage of the weak Florida secondary – especially if Lloyd is on the field.
The Florida Gators (5-4) broke their 2-game losing streak with a 41-24 road win at Texas A&M last week. It is an impressive win on the surface, but the Aggies were without more than 15 starters combined. That win was the first time the Gators have beaten a Power 5 opponent by more than 7 points this year. Without their ability to stop the run, I am not sure they will be able to beat the Gamecocks by this 8.5-point margin, despite South Carolina having its own struggles against the run.
Be sure to check out our full South Carolina vs Florida predictions
North Carolina Tar Heels +4.5 (-115) over Wake Forest
North Carolina’s defense has not had much success stopping opponents, but defense figures to be optional in his game. At least, that is what oddsmakers are telling us with a posted total of 77. I do not trust the Tar Heel defense enough to lay points with them, but catching points is a different story. In a shootout, I trust Drake Maye more than Sam Hartman. Maye leads the country in big-time throw percentage out of all quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks, per PFF. Furthermore, Maye has an adjusted completion percentage of 79.1% compared to Hartman’s 69.5%. His turnover-worthy play percentage is lower than Hartman’s, and he plays behind an offensive line that grades out better in standard down-line yards, pass down-line yards and sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
North Carolina is 5-0 SU on the road and 2-0 ATS/SU as a road underdog this season while Wake Forest has dropped 2 straight games as short favorites. Oddsmakers expect a bounce-back effort from the Deacons in this spot, but I am skeptical. They are already bowl-eligible and they are out of the divisional race, so I am unsure of the motivation surrounding the Demon Deacons. North Carolina, on the other hand, would clinch its first ACC Coastal championship since 2015 with a win this weekend. With a motivational advantage and proven success in the underdog role, I am happy to take the Tar Heels at any number so long as they are giving points.
Be sure to check out our full North Carolina vs Wake Forest predictions
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
