Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 9 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests taking place.
Saturday’s slate looks to be another good one and offers a ton of compelling matchups. There is value to be had across the board, including in the Group of 5. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
Kansas ML (-108)
Florida ML (+135)
Memphis ML (+138)
Parlay odds: +963
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with three underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 10 matchups!
Kansas ML (-108) over Oklahoma State
We were committed to fading Kansas for a while, but I’m back on the Jayhawks this week. It’s about as good of a spot as you can find to bet on Kansas. This is a team fresh off a bye week and they’re getting back their starting quarterback for this game. Kansas is at home and needs just 1 more win to become bowl-eligible, a massive achievement for Lance Leipold and his staff. Now the Jayhawks are catching an Oklahoma State team in a back-to-back road spot off an ugly 48-0 drubbing at Kansas State. To make matters worse for the Cowboys, they will likely be without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders, in addition to a pair of wide receivers, multiple lineman and multiple starters in the secondary.
In contrast, Kansas is much healthier, particularly on offense. With Jalon Daniels likely back at quarterback, expect this Jayhawks offense to look like it did prior to his injury against TCU a month ago. And even if Daniels doesn’t play this weekend, Jason Bean has plenty of starting QB experience and shouldn’t have much trouble against a porous Oklahoma State defense. The Cowboys are 97th in EPA per pass and 117th on early downs EPA on defense, which should come into play against this brilliant Kansas offensive scheme. I think the Jayhawks will play with a bit of extra motivation to reach their first bowl game since 2008, so I’ll gladly take them in this spot.
Check out our full Oklahoma State vs Kansas predictions
Florida ML (+135) over Texas A&M
This is another fantastic situational spot for Florida, with the Gators taking on a Texas A&M team that has to be cooked at this point. The Aggies have just 2 wins over FBS opponents this season; one which came over a bad Miami team and the other required a 99-yard fumble-return touchdown against Arkansas. Not only has Texas A&M squandered its preseason hopes of an SEC West title, but the Aggies are now in danger of missing a bowl game altogether. This team is a mess and morale has to be low, which shouldn’t be the case for their opponent.
Florida entered the season with more tempered expectations under new coach Billy Napier, and the Gators have met those expectations. This is a decent team that excels at running the football, averaging 6.1 yards per rush. Florida is 5th in EPA per rush and should take advantage of an Aggies defense that is 80th in rushing success rate. Texas A&M is also 84th on 3rd and 4th-down defense, which doesn’t bode well against the improvisational skills of Anthony Richardson. If Florida can stay in 3rd and short or medium situations, Richardson and company should thrive in what shouldn’t be too hostile of an environment.
Check out our full Florida vs Texas A&M predictions
Memphis ML (+138) over UCF
UCF was one of my favorite bets of last weekend, and I’m glad we got to the window with the Knights. With that being said, this week is a brutal sandwich spot for UCF. Having just beaten Cincinnati and with a pivotal game against Tulane on deck, the Knights now have to play a road game against a feisty Memphis team that can score points in bunches. Furthermore, the Tigers’ 4-4 record is a bit deceiving as 2 of those losses came after blowing 3-score leads to Houston and East Carolina. Memphis is coming off a much-needed bye week while UCF is in the midst of its third straight game against a quality opponent, with another road game on deck.
The biggest concern for UCF is the status of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who is questionable after suffering a concussion in last week’s game. Without Plumlee, the Knights will be forced to turn to Mikey Keene, who isn’t much of a runner and sticks within the pocket. UCF is a run-first team, which shouldn’t bother the Tigers defense, as Memphis is 28th in EPA per rush and 37th in opponent rushing success rate. Furthermore, the Knights struggle defending the pass, which is exactly what Memphis wants to do early and often. This is a great matchup and an even better situational spot for the Tigers. Let’s back Memphis to get the upset.
Be sure to get our college football Week 10 best bets – we have gone 16-8-1 over the past 8 weeks!
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