Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
Week 9 of the college football season is behind us, and it was a pretty middling set of games all things considered. However, we’re back to having an exciting slate on tap this week — featuring a number of important games across a myriad of conferences. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 10 schedule with my weekly best bets column. We got back to winning ways in last week’s column, so let’s hope this momentum finally translates into getting a 3-0 card this week!
We have a top-5 showdown in the Big Ten to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a couple of big games in the SEC and ACC that I see value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for Week on Saturday.
Penn State Nittany Lions +4.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published October 28. Playable to Penn State +3.
This is easily the biggest game of the weekend from a national perspective, and this Penn State team is not only poised to qualify for its first-ever College Football Playoff berth, but would have the inside track to a Big Ten title appearance with a win over its rival on Saturday. These teams are trending in opposite directions heading into this one, especially after a dispiriting performance from Ohio State’s offense against Nebraska in a narrow victory last week. While the injury status of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is in question, the quotes from head coach James Franklin in his Monday press conference lead me to believe that junior will be under center when kickoff rolls around on Saturday. Allar has been excellent in his second season as a starter, averaging 10 yards per attempt and spearheading the Nittany Lions to a top-5 passing offense this season (2nd in passing success rate, 3rd in EPA per pass). Against an Ohio State secondary that we just saw struggle mightily against Oregon a few weeks ago, there should be chances for Penn State to strike for a few explosive plays downfield in this one.
Given that Allar is a true “game-time decision” in this one, there’s also the possibility that we’ll see Beau Pribula, who filled in admirably and led the Nittany Lions to a victory in the second half against Wisconsin, completing 11-of-13 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. Pribula gives this offense an extra dimension with his legs too, which worked extremely well for offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki previously at Kansas with the likes of Jason Bean and Jalon Daniels. A bit of quarterback uncertainty could do some good for Penn State in this spot, especially since it makes this Ohio State defense prepare for a pro-style passing offense, and one more geared toward read option and run-heavy looks. Regardless of who suits up at quarterback, Penn State should be able to generate successful runs and control the clock with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the ground game, as the Nittany Lions are top-20 in rushing success rate and 3rd in Early Downs EPA (College Football Insiders). Ohio State has been excellent against the rush this season, but considering the consistent success that Oregon had on the ground earlier this month, those numbers certainly appear to be boosted by playing weaker competition earlier in the season.
On the other side of the ball, the Penn State defense is a top-10 unit in the nation and should be able to hold down a Buckeyes rushing attack that has not looked right in recent games. Ohio State has real issues in both run and pass blocking on the offensive line following a couple of key injuries over the last few weeks. That doesn’t bode well against a Nittany Lions defense that should generate consistent pressure on Will Howard and make life difficult for Ohio State’s passing game (19th in passing success rate, 15th in EPA per dropback, 6th in net points per drive). While this matchup has been a repeated stumbling block for Franklin and this program, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to take advantage of the opportunity at hand and keep this game close, if not win outright. I’ve got this game priced at under a field goal, so I can’t pass up a chance to grab this number with Penn State.
Read our full Ohio State vs Penn Sate prediction
South Carolina Gamecocks +3.5 vs Texas A&M Aggies (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to South Carolina +3.
One of the best situational spots on the board this weekend comes in the SEC, where the South Carolina Gamecocks are set to host the Texas A&M Aggies, who are fresh off a massive victory over LSU in a game that carried massive College Football Playoff and SEC Championship implications. Following that victory, Mike Elko’s team has now won 7 consecutive games with their lone loss being a Week 1 home defeat at the hands of Notre Dame. Meanwhile, South Carolina is well-rested for this matchup following its bye week. The Gamecocks are in good form at the moment, having just delivered a 35-9 beatdown of the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman prior to their bye, and are in good position to grab a minimum of 2 more wins to earn bowl eligibility this season.
While South Carolina isn’t looked at as one of the better teams in the SEC, the Gamecocks are really just 2 plays (and a few egregious officiating decisions) away from knocking off both LSU and Alabama and sitting at 4-1 in the conference standings as a result. Shane Beamer’s team should be fully prepared for an Aggies squad that used multiple quarterbacks to its advantage a week ago, and will likely opt to go with Marcel Reed as the starter. If Reed ends up getting the start, South Carolina’s defensive line is more than capable of bottling up the young quarterback in the ground game, which will force him to be more of a pocket passer, something that he has struggled with to this point. The blueprint for slowing down Reed is there for the Gamecocks, as they did just shut down Jalen Milroe and the Alabama rushing offense a few weeks ago.
On the other side, the South Carolina offense is still pretty limited, but the Gamecocks should be able to hit enough explosive plays to keep the A&M defense on its toes. As long as the tandem of LaNorris Sellers and Raheim Sanders can avoid putting the ball on the ground, we should see a very tight game at Williams-Bryce Stadium. I love getting over a field goal with an undervalued South Carolina team in this spot, and I think the Gamecocks pull the outright upset.
Read our full Texas A&M vs South Carolina prediction
Pittsburgh Panthers vs SMU Mustangs under 58.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 57.
Both of these teams control their own destiny in the ACC, which also gives them a path to the playoff in what has become a wide open year. With that said, Pittsburgh is pretty fortunate to be in its current position, especially with how the last few games have gone for the Panthers. Three weeks ago, Pat Narduzzi’s squad was outgained by California in what ended up being an unconvincing 17-15 victory at home in a great spot. Things only got more perplexing out of the bye week, as the Panthers were outgained by over 100 yards and managed just two conversions on 3rd down all game against Syracuse. Despite all of that, Pittsburgh beat the Orange by a score of 41-13 thanks to 5 (!) interceptions from Kyle McCord, with 3 of them being returned for touchdowns in what ended up being one of the stranger box scores of the Week 9 slate.
On the other end of the spectrum, SMU was able to survive 6 turnovers of its own and still found a way to beat Duke despite that minus-6 turnover differential. The Mustangs have been rolling since an early season loss to BYU, but this offense suffered a major blow prior to last week’s game with the news that star tight end RJ Maryland will miss the remainder of the season. You could see impact of the loss in that game, as Kevin Jennings and the rest of the offense looked out of sorts and searching for answers. The good news for SMU is that its defense has been stout, sitting at 10th in success rate allowed, 5th in EPA per rush and 4th in Early Downs EPA. The Mustangs should be able to get some stops against a Pitt offense that is a little banged up heading into this one. Pittsburgh’s defense has been rock solid on early downs EPA (6th) and it remains an excellent unit against the rush, so I don’t see SMU’s talented backfield running wild here.
Given the explosiveness of these offenses from a season-long perspective, I understand why the total in this game is approaching 60. However, I just can’t get to this number given the profiles of both teams at the moment. Let’s go with the under at the current number in this pivotal ACC clash.
Read our full Pittsburgh vs SMU prediction
