Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
We finally have a trio of games on Thursday night to help move Week 10 of the college football season along to what should be a terrific Saturday slate. While the best matchups of the week are on Saturday, these three games are compelling and have serious conference implications on the line for the ACC and Sun Belt. These games might not be on everyone’s radar, but winning bets all pay out the same!
You can read all our college football predictions here, but without any further ado, here’s my 3-leg NCAAF parlay with a mega payout of +610 odds. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Troy -4 (-105)
TCU vs Texas Tech Under 59.5 (-110)
Duke -12.5 (-110)
NCAAF parlay odds: +610
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Troy Trojans -4 over South Alabama Jaguars (-105)
South Alabama has been a tough team to pin down this season. The Jaguars demolished Oklahoma State earlier this season, only to lose to Central Michigan the following week. More recently, South Alabama beat UL-Monroe and Southern Miss by a combined score of 110-10, followed up by a 33-20 loss as double-digit favorites against Louisiana. This time around, I don’t see a bounce-back effort for the Jaguars this week. Troy is one of the best defensive teams in the country, sitting at 14th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. Furthermore, they’ve held opponents to 7 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and should cause problems for this Jaguars’ offense.
While South Alabama has a slight statistical advantage offensively, the Trojans are more than capable of keeping up. Troy ranks 31st in the country with 441.8 yards per game and QB Gunnar Watson can sling it. He ranks 26th in the country with 270.5 passing yards per game and has a solid 14:4 TD-to-INT ratio. As for South Alabama, they haven’t been as consistent in maintaining possession and hold a -2 turnover margin. Troy has forced 15 turnovers this season (19th in country) and this could serve as an issue for the Jaguars.
Check out our full South Alabama vs Troy predictions
TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Under 59.5 (-110)
Since quarterback Chandler Morris went down, the TCU Horned Frogs have struggled mightily, dropping 3 of their last 4 overall while failing to cover in all but their win over BYU. Texas Tech has not been much better with its stable of backup quarterbacks, losing 3 of 5 straight up and ATS since Tyler Shough went down. The Red Raiders have lost 4 straight against the Horned Frogs dating back to 2019, so there may be some extra motivation for the home favorites in this one. But we won’t be focusing on the side for this parlay leg.
My colleague Sam Avellone went into more detail in his TCU vs Texas Tech predictions, but the handicap on this game is clear; the offenses are just not very efficient. Texas Tech is outside the top 60 in drive efficiency, touchdown rate and points per drive (BCFToys) while TCU ranks 45th or worst in those aforementioned metrics. Both teams are playing with backup quarterbacks and have been extremely limited as a result. TCU sits outside the top 100 in points per opportunity and Texas Tech has been equally unreliable offensively in that time, sitting outside the top 80 in total scoring opportunities and outside the top 50 in PPA. The expected tempo should be quick here, but I do not think these offenses are efficient enough to get this game over the total.
Duke Blue Devils -12.5 over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-110)
Wake Forest has dropped 4 of its last 5 games in general, and it would be a clean 5-of-5 if Pittsburgh was competent enough to run off 50 seconds from the clock at the end of the game. But they didn’t, and if anything, that gives us a bit of value on Duke this week against a Wake Forest team that is having an awful season. While the Blue Devils were blanked last week at Louisville and were run over by the Florida State Seminoles the week before, this is still a great coaching staff and strong defensive unit.
So how do we play a game between 2 struggling teams? Duke has an excuse for its struggles — quarterback Riley Leonard has been hobbled by an ankle injury, and he has struggled as a quarterback who leans on his mobility. However, the line is telling us that Leonard should be close to full strength by now. Furthermore, Duke’s defense is ranked 23rd in the nation, and that is no mirage with games against the likes of Norte Dame, Florida State and Louisville already baked into those metrics. We can expect Duke’s defense to control this game, while an increasingly healthy Leonard gets the Blue Devils offense back on track.
Read our full Duke vs Wake Forest predictions
