Caleb Wilfinger
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We’ve got a terrific slate of college football on tap this Saturday, as all of the top-end games should all be fantastic. There are also a ton of compelling matchups down the board that will play a major part in bowl qualification and conference title races. For this week, we’ll be targeting a trio of underdogs, including a very important game in the Pac-12. These games might not be on everyone’s radar, but winning bets all pay out the same!
You can read all our college football predictions here, but without any further ado, here’s my 3-leg parlay with a mega payout of +1122 odds. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Clemson ML (+136)
Arizona ML (+114)
Arkansas ML (+142)
NCAAF parlay odds: +1122
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Clemson Tigers ML over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+136)
It might be gross, but now is the time to buy low on the Clemson Tigers. Clemson hasn’t lost 3 straight games since 2010 and thankfully for the Tigers, they play in Death Valley this weekend, where they’re 3-1 on the year. That home loss was against #4 Florida State in OT despite getting the better of the Seminoles for most of that game. There has also been an abundance of misfortunate for Clemson in their 4 losses, as the Tigers combined 2-for-7 on 4th down with a -6 turnover margin. Dabo Swinney recently said in a rant that Clemson would be 8-0 if they didn’t lead the FBS in fumbles, and he isn’t that far off.
Notre Dame got exposed in its last road game against Louisville as Sam Hartman went for 3 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles. Clemson’s defense is much better than Louisville’s unit, which should cause more problems for a Notre Dame offense that is already missing its top tight end and best pass catcher. As a head coach, Swinney is a terrific 14-7 (66.7%) against the spread as an underdog of more than a field goal. With home-field advantage in Death Valley, I’m backing Clemson to win this game outright in a game they absolutely have to have to salvage the 2023 season.
Check out our full Notre Dame vs Clemson predictions
Arizona Wildcats ML over UCLA Bruins (+114)
Everything I said last week about Arizona still holds true this week. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in 2023, and I won’t stop riding that gravy train this week, especially as home underdogs. They’ll be squaring off against a UCLA defense that has one of the best defensive fronts in the country, but Noah Fifita has been playing at an All-Conference level over the last couple of weeks (11 touchdowns, 1,199 yards) to seize the starting job at Arizona. The Wildcats would likely be ranked if they had won either overtime game against Mississippi State or USC earlier in the season, but oddsmakers still haven’t caught on yet so I still see value here.
In general, Arizona’s defense is undervalued in the market as the Wildcats are 42nd in early-downs EPA, 28th in EPA per pass and 12th in EPA per rush on defense. That unit shouldn’t struggle all too much this weekend against a Bruins offense that is 79th in passing success rate, 96th in EPA per pass and 120th in early-downs EPA. All of these signals point to a barking underdog in a matchup that I anticipate will be extremely close from start to finish. UCLA does have the better defense in this matchup, but I have full confidence in backing Fifita and the Arizona receivers over Ethan Garbers and the Bruins offense any day of the week.
Read our full UCLA vs Arizona predictions
Arkansas Razorbacks ML over Florida Gators (+142)
Another buy-low spot is screaming out on the board in Saturday’s early slate, and that team is the Arkansas Razorbacks. The spot is brutal for Florida, as the Gators are in a sandwich spot between games against Georgia (last week) and LSU on the road (next weekend). The Gators have also been extremely inconsistent offensively, especially when they’ve been unable to establish the run and relied on quarterback Graham Mertz to consistently make plays under duress in the passing game. Florida is 98th in rush success rate against an Arkansas defensive front that is 22nd in rushing success rate allowed, so this gives the visitors a decided edge.
The Razorbacks will also be rolling out a new offense, as offensive coordinator Dan Enos was fired during the bye week. I have little doubt that moving away from Enos will give this struggling offense a shot in the arm, in addition to the return of Raheim “Rocket” Sanders at running back. Yes, Arkansas has lost 6 straight games, but the Hogs were extremely unfortunate in defeats to BYU and Mississippi State — games in which they outgained their opponents by a significant margin. This is a great spot for the Razorbacks to get back on track, so let’s back them for the outright upset.
Lock in our expert’s NCAAF Week 10 best bets
