Sam Avellone
Show Bio
We inch closer and closer to the College Football Playoff, as the calendar will soon flip to November. Like every week, I’ve got you covered with an opening line report, and will cap things off with a best bet. Unfortunately, Kansas State did not help the cause last week, so we are now 6-2 on these opening line best bets. Let’s get back into the win column this week.
Below are the current lines and odds for college football Week 10’s biggest matchups, courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing on Sunday night. Don’t forget to check Pickswise throughout the week for all of our college football picks and predictions.
College football Week 10 opening lines and odds
- Texas State -3 (-115) vs Louisiana – Tuesday, October 29th
- Liberty -1 (-110) vs Jacksonville State – Wednesday, October 30th
- Tulane -16 (-110) @ Charlotte – Thursday, October 31st
- South Florida -2.5 (-110) @ Florida Atlantic – Friday, November 1st
- Boise State -23.5 (-110) vs San Diego State – Friday, November 1st
- Army -23.5 (-110) vs Air Force – Saturday, November 2nd
- Miami -20.5 (-110) vs Duke – Saturday, November 2nd
- Indiana -7 (-110) @ Michigan State – Saturday, November 2nd
- Clemson -11 (-110) vs Louisville – Saturday, November 2nd
- Minnesota -2.5 (-110) @ Illinois – Saturday, November 2nd
- Ole Miss -6.5 (-110) @ Arkansas – Saturday, November 2nd
- Northwestern -1.5 (-110) @ Purdue – Saturday, November 2nd
- Ohio State -4 (-110) @ Penn State – Saturday, November 2nd
- Auburn -6.5 (-115) vs Vanderbilt – Saturday, November 2nd
- Virginia Tech -3.5 (-110) @ Syracuse – Saturday, November 2nd
- UCF -6 (-110) vs Arizona – Saturday, November 2nd
- Georgia -16.5 (-110) vs Florida – Saturday, November 2nd
- Oregon -14.5 (-110) @ Michigan – Saturday, November 2nd
- SMU -7 (-110) vs Pittsburgh – Saturday, November 2nd
- Iowa State -14.5 (-110) vs Texas Tech – Saturday, November 2nd
- Nebraska -7 (-115) vs UCLA – Saturday, November 2nd
- Iowa -3.5 (-110) vs Wisconsin – Saturday, November 2nd
- Tennessee -16 (-110) vs Kentucky – Saturday, November 2nd
- Texas A&M -3.5 (-110) @ South Carolina – Saturday, November 2nd
- Arizona State -1 (-110) @ Oklahoma State – Saturday, November 2nd
- USC -2.5 (-110) @ Washington – Saturday, November 2nd
- Baylor -3 (-110) vs TCU – Saturday, November 2nd
If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ NCAAF Week 10 predictions.
NCAAF Week 10 opening line best bet: Army Black Knights -23.5 over Air Force Falcons (-110)
This is a massive number for a game between service academies, especially coming off a mutual bye. However, I struggle to find a path to success for the Air Force defense in this game, as this unit is one of the least efficient in the country. The Falcons entered their bye week 125th in defensive PPA, and opposing rushing attacks have had their way with them. Air Force’s defense ranks 119th in rushing yards allowed per game (193.71), yielding more than 5 yards per attempt. Prior to their bye, the Falcons were outside the top 120 in opposing rush PPA and rush explosiveness, which are not good traits to have against this Army offense. The Black Knights have run the ball more than any other team in the country outside of garbage time since Week 4, and they are top 5 in rush PPA and rush success in that time. They also have a top 25 explosive rush rate, which should set their offense up for multiple scoring situations.
Army averages 4.5 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time, and figures to meet little resistance in those situations against an Air Force defense that yields 5 points per opportunity and a touchdown on more than 70% of opposing red zone trips. With an offense that averages the 4th-fewest points per game (15.3) and sits outside the top 90 in PPA since Week 4, I don’t trust Air Force to score enough to stay inside the number despite catching more than 3 touchdowns. For what it’s worth, Air Force already played Navy this season, and the Midshipmen won 34-7 with 329 rushing yards and 6.7 yards per carry. Army is more than capable of replicating that performance. Playable to -24.
