Sam Avellone
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A massive Big Ten matchup kicks off at noon ET on Saturday in Happy Valley between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Ohio State’s back is against the wall with one loss in conference already. A second loss would be detrimental to the Buckeyes’ Big Ten title aspirations and would put them at risk of being left out of the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Penn State boasts a perfect 7-0 record. However, the Nittany Lions are just 3-4 ATS and have not played a team as dynamic and talented on both sides as Ohio State to this point.
As somewhat of a play-in game for the Big Ten Championship, the matchup between Ohio State and Penn State is the biggest on the Week 10 slate, and we at Pickswise are using it as an opportunity for a Same Game Parlay. Here are my 3 favorite props for the Buckeyes vs Nittany Lions, parlayed together for a juiced-up payout, while you can also find out our college football picks for all of Saturday’s big matchups.
Ohio State Buckeyes 1Q +0.5 (-240)
Ohio State vs Penn State 2Q Over 13.5 (-115)
Will Howard (OSU) to score a touchdown (+162)
Ohio State vs Penn State Same Game Parlay odds: +500
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing
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Ohio State first quarter +0.5 over Penn State (-240)
As previously mentioned, Ohio State’s back is against the wall in the race for a spot in the Big Ten title game. Coming off 2 disappointing performances, I expect the Buckeyes to be motivated to start this game with some intensity and get on the board early. They have scored a first-quarter touchdown in each of the last 3 games, all against conference opponents. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have held the lead over their opponent after the first quarter of every game except Marshall, which was a 7-7 tie after the opening period. Penn State has had the opposite luck early in games.
The Nittany Lions have held the lead going into the second quarter just once this season, a 7-0 lead over Kent State in a 56-0 Week 4 win. In the other 6 games, Penn State has been tied with its opponent after the first quarter 3 times and trailed 3 times — including its 2 recent games at USC and Wisconsin. Penn State also averages just 3.4 points per first quarter, which ranks 101st nationally. Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again in the future, but I like these first quarter trends to continue for Ohio State and Penn State given how motivated the Buckeyes should be coming into this game and how much of a step up in class they are for the Nittany Lions — who have a strength of schedule ranked 64th by ESPN.
Read our full Ohio State vs Penn State prediction
Ohio State vs Penn State second quarter over 13.5 (-115)
Penn State may start games slowly, but its offense seems to come together in the 2nd quarter more often than not. The Nittany Lions average 11.1 points per second quarter, which is good for 18th nationally. That number ticks up to 12 points in their home games. Similarly, Ohio State is 8th nationally in second quarter scoring — averaging more than 12 points in all second quarters and 17.5 on the road. Defensively, the Buckeyes yield an average of 11.5 points per second quarter when they play away from home. Michigan State scored its lone touchdown against Ohio State in the second quarter, while Oregon dropped 16 in Eugene a few weeks ago. Last week Nebraska reached the green zone twice in the second quarter but had to settle for field goals.
Expecting a slow start from Penn State against the physical Ohio State defense, the Nittany Lions should show life in the second quarter and find the endzone. The Buckeyes are a threat to score in every period, so I like over at fewer than the key number of 14.
Will Howard (OSU) to score a touchdown (+162)
The injuries across Ohio State’s offensive line are well known. The Buckeyes will be without their starting left tackle Josh Simmons, and could be without another starter in Zen Michalski. This could lead to an uptick in Will Howard’s rushing attempts, whether they are designed runs or scrambles away from the Penn State pressure. After recording just 8 rush attempts in 3 non-conference games, Howard has carried the ball 33 times in 5 conference games — an average of about 6.5 attempts per game. He has scored a rushing touchdown in 5 of Ohio State’s 7 games, often being called upon as a runner deep in the red zone or on the goal line.
Howard grew up a Penn State fan and the Nittany Lions did not recruit him, so there could be a bit of a motivational edge for Howard to find the end zone in Happy Valley on Saturday. That’s not a quantifiable angle, but something to consider. For what it’s worth, Penn State has yet to see a quarterback with the level of dual-threat abilities that Howard possesses — which should be a good thing schematically for the Howard and Buckeyes.
Check out our NCAAF predictions for all of Week 10’s big games
