Sam Avellone
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November is here, which means we have entered the final month of the college football regular season. Another week means another opportunity to find underdogs who are being undervalued in the market, so let’s take a look at what Week 10 has to offer.
Lock in our NCAAF picks for all of the biggest games in Week 10
College football Week 10 best underdog bets
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Memphis Tigers +3.5 over UCF Knights (-110)
The bye week came at a very good time for the Memphis Tigers, as their last 3 games were quite a rollercoaster ride. In Week 6, the Tigers blew a 16-point, 4th-quarter lead against Houston and lost by 1 point. They followed that up with a 17-point blown lead on the road at East Carolina, losing by 2 points after 4 overtimes. After heartbreak in back-to-back weeks, Memphis then had to travel on the road to Tulane – one of the most difficult places to play in the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers faced a 35-point deficit at halftime against the Green Wave, but managed to fight back in what ended up being a respectable 38-28 loss. Hopefully, the second half against Tulane provided some positive momentum going into the bye week.
UCF’s offense could look quite different if backup quarterback Mikey Keene starts on Saturday. He is more of a passer than John Rhys Plumlee, so it is hard to project how the Knights will look on that side of the ball. That being said, going on the road with a backup quarterback is a tough ask. Memphis plays very well at home, especially as an underdog, and quarterback Seth Henigan will be tough to defend for a UCF defense that ranks outside the top 60 in pass rush and pass coverage, per PFF. Henigan missed the UCF game last year, so he will have extra motivation for this one.
This matchup has been very competitive in recent years, with the previous 2 games in Memphis being decided by just 1 point. UCF may appear to be the stronger team on paper, but the Tigers catch the Knights in somewhat of a sandwich spot having this game in between games against Cincinnati and Tulane – 2 of the AAC’s 3 top teams. I like Memphis to keep this one within a field goal and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers win outright.
Be sure to check out our full UCF vs Memphis predictions
Kansas State Wildcats +2.5 over Texas Longhorns (-110)
The Wildcats quietly sit second in the Big 12 standings with just 1 conference loss and a 6-2 overall record. They rebounded from a 38-28 loss to TCU with a very impressive 48-0 win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys last week, while the Texas Longhorns sat idle after a 41-34 loss to those same Cowboys in Week 8.
After throwing 3 interceptions against Oklahoma State, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers now has 5 interceptions in the 4 full games he has played with the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play percentage out of qualifying quarterbacks with 150 or more dropbacks this season, per PFF. His decision-making will be put to the test on the road against a sneaky good Kansas State defense that ranks in the top 25 in turnover rate and interceptions.
In addition to forcing turnovers, Kansas State has been excellent at preventing opponents from scoring. Allowing just 17.6 points per game in conference, the Wildcats rank 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense just behind Iowa State – who held Texas to 24 points in a near-upset win in Austin in Week 7. Furthermore, they are in the top 15 in Football Outsiders’ opposing drive efficiency and opposing touchdown rate against a strength of schedule that ranks 12th per Sagarin.
Since taking over as head coach at Texas last year, Steve Sarkisian has led the Longhorns to just 1 ATS win in true road games. Considering their struggles on the road and their performance in their previous 2 games, I cannot trust the Longhorns enough to lay points with them on the road. I feel that the wrong team is favored in this matchup, so I am happy to take the points with the Wildcats.
Be sure to check out our full Texas vs Kansas State predictions
Auburn Tigers +12.5 over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-110)
The Tigers may come into this game with some extra energy after Bryan Harsin was fired earlier this week. Running backs coach and former Auburn running back Carnell “Cadillac” Williams will take over as interim head coach to lead the Tigers through their last 4 games of the regular season, which could end up working in Auburn’s favor in this matchup. Mississippi State may be coming off a bye, but Auburn having a new coach means the Tigers will likely run some plays that have yet to be seen on film.
Auburn has a talented running back in Tank Bigsby with a mobile quarterback in Robby Ashford. Considering Williams is a former running back himself, he will likely center the game plan around the rushing attack. This bodes well for Auburn schematically, as the Bulldogs rank 60th in tackling and 102nd in rush defense per PFF while allowing over 4.2 yards per carry. Bigsby could prove to be a tough matchup for this defense considering he ranks 4th in yards after contact per attempt and has gained over 250 total yards in his past 2 games with 3 touchdowns.
Going into their bye week, the Bulldogs lost 2 straight games outright and against the spread. They come into this game without a true idea of what to expect from Williams and the Tigers, and they host Georgia next week – so I have a hard time seeing a win by a big margin in this particular spot. Do not be surprised to see Auburn keep this one close.
Be sure to check out our full Auburn vs Mississippi State predictions
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