Sam Avellone
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There were 6 power conference upsets by underdogs of more than 6 points in Week 9, including Northwestern over Maryland, West Virginia over UCF, Kansas over Oklahoma, North Carolina State over Clemson and Georgia Tech over North Carolina. UMass, Coastal Carolina, and Miami (OH) won outright while catching points in their respective group of 5 matchups, and a plethora of other underdogs covered the spreads in near outright wins. As the calendar shifts to November, Week 10 is upon us. With so much parity across the college football landscape this year, underdogs will likely continue to bark in the final month of the season.
We got back into the winner’s column last week with a strong 2-1 performance, improving our season-long record to 16-10-1. Let’s keep it going!
Best Week 10 Underdog bets
Army Black Knights +18 (-110) over Air Force
I mentioned a few weeks ago that I tend to gravitate towards underdogs catching double digits in games with very low totals; this service academy matchup offers just that. With an impressively low total of 31.5, the Black Knights are catching as many as 18 points in Saturday’s game in Denver at Mile High Stadium. On the surface, this feels like a lop-sided matchup. However, it should be closer than oddsmakers are currently projecting. Air Force’s results are a bit inflated, as the Falcons have played the 123rd-rated strength of schedule per Sagarin. In fact, they have defeated just 1 team with a winning record. On the other side, Army may be 2-5-1 ATS, but the Black Knights have lost just 2 games by more than 17 points – 1 of those being against LSU in Baton Rouge where Army was clearly over-matched from the jump.
The defensive numbers for Army are not attractive, but the Black Knights have plenty of familiarity with Air Force and the option tendencies within its offense. When they have the ball, the Black Knights are 2nd nationally in stuff rate allowed since Week 5 as well as top 5 in line yards. That should provide Army’s offense with enough room to run against Air Force’s defense – which ranks outside the top 65 in stuff rate since Week 5 despite its easy schedule. In all, Army and Air Force are 2 of the 6 slowest-paced teams in the country with top 4 rush rates since the end of September. There simply may not be enough possessions for Air Force to win by margin in this game – which oddsmakers currently project to be a 24-7 Air Force victory. I think Army can score at least 1 touchdown against Air Force, so give me the Black Knights in this service academy duel.
Check out our full Army vs Air Force predictions
Oklahoma State Cowboys +6 (-110) over Oklahoma
The final Bedlam as we know it. This in-state rivalry has been dominated by Oklahoma over the years, who decided not to continue the annual matchup when it moves to the SEC next year. Expect Coach Gundy and the Cowboys to use that as motivation at home on Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, winning 4 straight while scoring an average of 40.3 points in those contests. Since Week 5, the Cowboys have been excellent on the ground thanks to running back Ollie Gordon II, who has over 1,000 rushing yards (553 in the last 2 games) and an average of 7.7 yards per carry to go along with 10 rushing touchdowns.
Gordon is 2nd among qualified Big 12 running backs in yards after contact per attempt (4.67 yards) and tied for 5th in missed tackles forced – all while leading the conference in explosive runs. Because of him, Oklahoma State is 12th nationally in PPA per rush and 2nd in run explosiveness since Week 5. That could spell trouble for the Sooners, who yielded 225 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry in the loss to Kansas last week after allowing UCF’s RJ Harvey to accumulate 101 rushing yards on 23 carries the week prior. For reference, the Sooners are outside the top 70 in PPA per rush allowed and 100th in second level yards since the end of September. Furthermore, they are 53rd in PFF’s tackling on the season.
Following their fortunate win over Texas in early October, the Sooners have failed to cover in 2 straight and were out-gained by Kansas last week. The Sooners also committed 11 penalties last week, bumping their average to 9.5 penalties committed per game on the road in conference. Give me the home dog with a reliable running game in better form in what should be a raucous environment in Stillwater on Saturday.
Don’t miss our expert’s College Football Week 10 best bets!
Kansas Jayhawks +3 (-115) over Iowa State
There is a lot of hype for Iowa State this week, and rightfully so. The Cyclones have won 4 of their last 5 after losing 2 of their first 3, and their offense has seemingly found something that works. Furthermore, they held their previous 3 opponents to 18 points or less, so they have been solid on both sides of the ball since the beginning of October. However, I am not buying this line. Iowa State’s last 3 opponents – TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor – all rank 65th or worse in PPA offensively since Week 5. Kansas is 7th in that time, despite its offense being run by backup quarterback Jason Bean, and has been able to finish drives successfully – scoring more than 4.4 points per opportunity.
The strength of Kansas’s offense is the rushing attack with a powerful running back duo in Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. and a strong offensive line that is 6th in PFF’s run blocking. The pair of running backs has 195 combined carries, over 1,200 combined rushing yards, 15 combined touchdowns and 38 combined explosive runs this season. Both backs also impressively average over 6 yards per carry and about 3.8 yards after contact per attempt. As a whole, the Jayhawks are top 40 in power success with top 25 marks in stuff rate and line yards since Week 5.
Furthermore, Kansas is top 10 in PPA per rush and top 20 in rush success rate over that time. The Jayhawks’ rushing attack could gash an Iowa State run defense that is 60th or worse in power success, stuff rate and rush success rate allowed since the end of September, and broken tackles will likely rear their ugly head for Iowa State – who ranks 89th in PFF’s tackling metric. Sure, this could be a hangover spot for Kansas after a massive home win over Oklahoma last week, but this offense figures to have a sizable advantage on the ground in this matchup. I am happy to grab a full 3 points and think Kansas has a very real chance to win this one outright – muddying up the Big 12 title race even further.
Check out our CFB Week 10 mega parlay (+610!)
