Sam Avellone
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The first full Saturday of the college football regular season has finally arrived, and what better way to celebrate than with a 3-leg parlay? We hit our parlay on Thursday thanks to Fordham’s late touchdown, so let’s keep the good mojo going on the biggest day of college football this week.
Be sure to visit Pickwise frequently not only this week, but also throughout the season for picks on every game and articles like this for additional analysis and selections. Now let’s break down each leg of Saturday’s college football parlay.
Clemson Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs Over 48 (-112)
Maryland Terrapins -19.5 (-112)
Texas A&M Aggies ML (-148)
Saturday Week 1 college football parlay: +500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Clemson Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs Over 48 (-112)
A heavyweight battle between the Clemson Tigers and the Georgia Bulldogs kicks off Saturday’s action at noon ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs are laying double-digit points against the Tigers. Both of these teams are known for their defensive prowess, but I’m not sure that will be on display in this game. Clemson returns just 56% of its defensive production from last season, which ranks 88th nationally. As many as 5 players were drafted in April, including Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Tyler Davis and Nate Wiggins – their 3 most efficient defenders. The Tigers also lost Xavier Thomas, who led the team in hurries and QB hits, and Andrew Mukuba – who transferred to Texas. Like Clemson, Georgia is outside the top 60 in returning defensive production after losing its 3 top pieces in the secondary to the NFL. The Bulldogs return most of their front 7, but this unit didn’t play to the championship-level that we were accustomed to seeing in 2021 and 2022. UGA was not in the top 10 in yards per play allowed last year. Furthermore, the Bulldogs yielded over 110 rush yards per game and more than 4 yards per carry.
With these defenses potentially in a bit of a transitional period, the offenses are poised to shine in this matchup. Clemson and Georgia retained their starting quarterbacks, and both will be playing behind stout offensive lines. It’s no secret that Cade Klubnik struggled in Garrett Riley’s first season as coordinator at Clemson, but with a season of experience in the system under his belt and another offseason to develop, many close to the Clemson program expect better things from Klubnik through the air. Clemson’s wide receivers are also expected to elevate their production, especially with the addition of Bryant Wesco – a top 15 receiver in the 2024 recruiting class. On the ground, Phil Mafah takes over as the bell-cow running back following the departure of Will Shipley, providing the Tigers with a battering ram between the tackles that was top 3 in the ACC in yards after contact and top 7 in missed tackles forced.
Georgia’s skill positions will look quite a bit different in this game. Beck’s security blankets in Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey are now in the NFL, which means Dillon Bell, Dominic Lovett and Oscar Delp – who flashed brilliance last year at various points – will have to step up. This is especially true in this game against Clemson given the fact that the Bulldogs are battling injuries and potentially suspensions at the running back position. Without Roderick Robinson and potentially Trevor Etienne, Branson Robinson, Cash Jones and freshman Nate Frazier will be tasked with a bulk of the carries, but there is not a ton of experience among those 3 at this point of their careers. Because of this, I expect coordinator Mike Bobo to center his gameplan around Beck’s arm. With so much change on both defenses, the expected improvement of Clemson’s offense and the reliability of Beck’s arm, there should be plenty of points in this matchup. For what it’s worth, Georgia’s last 5 games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium went over this number.
Maryland Terrapins -19.5 over UConn Huskies (-112)
The Terrapins won’t have quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa this season, nor will they have 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen from last year. However, there is still optimism surrounding the Maryland program following their 2nd consecutive 8-win season and 3rd consecutive bowl win. All-conference running back Roman Hemby remains in College Park, in addition to both of Maryland’s standout wide receivers – each of whom averaged more than 15 yards per reception. Furthermore, the Terrapins retained 66% of their defensive production after allowing only 22.5 points per game, including 8 starters. All this returning production puts them in a great position against a UConn team that won just 3 games last year. The Huskies have shown improvement under Jim Mora, but they lost multiple key pieces they previously relied on for production including their quarterback, an offensive lineman that received multiple All-American honors, 3 of their top 4 pass catchers, their starting linebackers and multiple pieces in the secondary. A pair of tackles and a reliable rushing attack returns, but that’s unlikely to be enough to beat a savvy Maryland team with experience on both sides of the ball.
While the turnover at quarterback and offensive line is concerning for the ‘Terps, they have plenty of talent to cruise to a victory over UConn. Look for Hemby to churn yards on the ground against a defense that yielded more than 4.2 yards per carry last season, while the talented wide receiver duo of Tai Felton and Kaden Prather find gaps in coverage against a secondary that was outside the 120 in pass defense in 2023.
Texas A&M Aggies ML over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-148)
There is plenty of intrigue surrounding Notre Dame’s road trip to College Station in primetime on Saturday night. In addition to the expectation that both teams compete for a spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff, fueling the intrigue of this matchup is the fact that Texas A&M’s new head coach Mike Elko was current Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s coach at Duke for the last 2 seasons. The duo won 17 games in 2 years, which had not happened at Duke since 2014-2015.
Unfortunately for Notre Dame, this is an extremely tough matchup to start the season. Not only does Texas A&M’s head coach have extreme familiarity with Leonard’s strengths and weaknesses, but Leonard will also play behind an offensive line replacing its most talented pieces and returning no one that played more than 300 snaps. Projected starter Charles Jagusah was lost to injury, so true freshman Anthonie Knapp steps in to start at left tackle under the lights at Kyle Field – one of the most intimidating home atmospheres in college football. Leonard is fantastic at avoiding sacks, but he figures to be under an incredible amount of pressure against an Aggie front 7 that returns 2 of its 3 top pass rushers per PFF grade, 2 of its 3 top tacklers and a couple of highly-coveted transfers in Nic Scourton (Purdue) and Cashius Howell (Bowling Green) – who combined for 18 sacks and 55 hurries last year.
Texas A&M has a couple question marks on offense under new coordinator Collin Klein, but quarterback Connor Weigman returns after he threw for 979 yards, 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 4 starts before breaking his foot and missing the rest of the season. He won’t have quite as talented a group of pass-catchers at his disposal compared to last year, and starting running back Rueben Owens is out for the season due to injury – but the Aggies still have highly-recruited players at the skill positions on Texas A&M’s depth chart including Le’Veon Moss and Noah Thomas. Furthermore, all 5 pieces of the starting line played at least 395 snaps last season. Home field advantage is massive for this matchup, and the influence of the 12th man in conjunction with a stout defensive front figures to be too much to handle for Leonard and Notre Dame in Week 1.
