Caleb Wilfinger
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The long and eventful offseason is in the rearview mirror and the 2024 college football season is upon us. Week 0 was a nice appetizer, but the battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins in earnest on Thursday and won’t slow down until December. With a whole host of teams added to the playing field in this new playoff format, who will reach the pinnacle of the sport this season? It’s almost time to find out.
With the offseason chaos behind us and our extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to get into the Week 1 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. Much like the year prior, the 2023 season was a profitable one for this column, as I finished with a win rate of 60%, highlighted by a 9-2 run to close out bowl season and the College Football Playoff. Hopefully you cashed with me!
While I didn’t get off to a great start in Week 0, I got back on track with a 2-0 night on Thursday, so let’s keep the momentum going! There are tons of games with value in the first full slate of games on Saturday, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this massive Week 1 slate.
Want more college football picks? Check out our NCAAF futures betting guide for EVERY Pickswise prediction for the 2024 CFB season
Miami Hurricanes vs Florida Gators to be decided by 7 points or fewer (+110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Arguably the most fascinating game in Week 1 features a pair of Sunshine State rivals on Saturday. On one side, Billy Napier is in the midst of a do-or-die season as Florida’s head coach and the Gators’ extraordinarily difficult schedule will make his survival that much tougher. Given the ferocity of Florida’s slate of games within the SEC, this could be a situation where Napier gets fired if there aren’t wins early in the year. In that same vein, this is a Miami Hurricanes team that absolutely has to win 10 games and get back to the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff, especially after an offseason where the powers that be around the program spent a ton of money in order to acquire high-end talent to complete the roster. If head coach Mario Cristobal can put his game management struggles behind him, this could be a season to remember in Coral Gables. For now, it’s hard to believe in Miami’s potential until I actually see it.
For those that read my preview for this game, you’ll know that I’ve taken Florida +3 and picked the Gators to win this game outright. However, I wanted to get a bit more creative with my best bet because I do strongly believe this is a one possession game that could go either way. Therefore, we’re going to craft an Same Game Parlay using the alternate spread section and select +7.5 for both teams. Because this is somewhat of a non-correlated play, that gets us some nice plus money on a game that is lined at under a field goal and should come down to the wire.
This is a game where I anticipate both offenses will see success throughout. Cam Ward and Damien Martinez lead a dynamic Miami offense that should certainly create issues for the Florida defense in the Swamp. However, the same can be said for a Gators offense that is better than public perception would suggest, thanks to a quarterback that took a major step forward a season ago. Graham Mertz was quietly one of the best QBs in the SEC in 2023, and I’d expect him to continue that momentum against a Miami secondary that will surely feel the losses of both James Williams and Kamren Kinchens to the NFL. If Florida can establish any sort of ground game, the Gators will be in advantageous situations on crucial downs in this game. If that happens, Mertz’s success in the quick passing game should neutralize a Miami front seven that is the strength of its defense.
Overall, this is a game that I fully expect to come down to the wire and while I don’t doubt that Miami is likely the better team over a course of the season, this is a game where all of the Hurricanes new pieces could run into issues as they try to win a massive game in a hostile environment. I lean to the ‘dog here, but I’d rather bank on a close game where we won’t need to sweat a winner. As long as both coaches are in a position to potentially make a bad decision late in the 4th quarter, I’d say we’re in good shape.
Lock in our college football parlay picks for Saturday’s action
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +14.5 vs UCLA Bruins (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +14 (-115).
I’ve already broken down in my preview for this game that I was in agreement with the sharp money in the market that pushed this number down all summer. In fact, the number was bet all the way down to Hawaii +12 prior to last Saturday’s Week 0 game, before we saw buyback on UCLA after a very poor showing from the Rainbow Warriors in an unimpressive victory over Delaware State at home. However, I don’t agree with the severity of this line move, especially given the circumstances around that Week 0 game.
As I said in my Game of the Year piece earlier this month, I expected this high-flying Hawaii offense to show very little against Delaware State in a game where the Rainbow Warriors were 40-point favorites and had UCLA on deck. There were also heavy winds throughout in that game, making the downfield passing game nearly impossible for veteran quarterback Brayden Schager and this strong group of wide receivers. Even though Hawaii was unimpressive a week ago, this line move through a key number feels like a significant overreaction to one game. My preseason thoughts on Hawaii still hold true (for now). This should be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season and I fully expect the “run and shoot” offense under head coach Timmy Chang should give this UCLA secondary major issues.
In general, I’ll be looking to fade UCLA this season, primarily because the Bruins are dealing with a significant amount of roster turnover, which gives Hawaii a massive edge in terms of returning production and experience heading into this matchup. Additionally, the Bruins are breaking in new head coach DeShaun Foster — who hasn’t shown that he can be an effective head coach at any level of football to date — and a new offensive coordinator. All of this is happening while the Bruins are trying to work through the first year of a rebuild in a brand new conference after losing nearly half of their statistical production from a season ago. I expect that this Hawaii offense should have plenty in the tank to surprise an inexperienced opponent and generate explosive plays when needed. Since Week 0 was instituted, there’s precedent for a team showing well in its second game against a team playing its first game of the season, so let’s take Hawaii to keep this one within two touchdowns on the island.
Read our full UCLA vs Hawaii prediction
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Texas A&M Aggies first half under 23.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +23.5 (-125).
This is a game where I do think Texas A&M is the right side, but I just can’t justify laying 3 points (or even playing a juiced -2.5 number) when you could’ve gotten the Aggies as either a short underdog or at a pick ’em price just a few weeks ago. With that in mind, I’m instead going to target the first half under in a matchup that could go a long way into determining which one of these programs makes the brand new expanded 12-team playoff in December.
Part of the reason why the market has been fading Notre Dame in this matchup is the Fighting Irish are dealing with massive injury issues on its offensive line. This is a team that recently lost its starting left tackle for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, after already having to replace one of the greatest offensive tackles in program history with Joe Alt leaving for the NFL. The Fighting Irish have had to rework their offensive line multiple times over the course of the offseason, and they’ll now enter Kyle Field with a total lack of experience at all five positions on the line (six career FBS starts). This could be a major issue in the opening game of the season on the road against what is a stout Texas A&M defensive line group filled with NFL caliber players.
There’s also the matter of the familiarity that the hosts will have with the Irish quarterback. Aggies head coach Mike Elko has the advantage of coaching Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard over the last couple of seasons while they both were at Duke. This should give his defense a leg up on the Notre Dame offense, particularly early in the game. Elko will certainly understand Leonard’s tendencies, strengths and weaknesses and he’ll undoubtedly have his defense extremely prepared for what they’ll face as a result. On the other side, the Fighting Irish are expected to field another strong defensive unit and Texas A&M is also implementing a brand new offense under new offensive coordinator Collin Klien. I could see some nerves and growing pains for the Aggies as they work out the kinks in the first half of the opening game. For all of those reasons, I’ll be back the first half under in College Station.
