Ricky Dimon
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Ladies and gentlemen, college football season is here! Actually, it’s been here for a while. “Week 0” already came and went before “Week 1” kicked off on Thursday night. Now we turn our attention to Saturday, which provides us with the first massive schedule of the 2023 campaign. Let’s keep the momentum rolling after we cashed a +610 parlay on Thursday.
Below is my mega parlay for Saturday, and also be sure to check out all of our NCAAF picks.
Fresno State ML (+158)
North Carolina -2.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -14 (-110)
NCAAF parlay odds: +840
For this parlay we are going with 2 favorites against the spread and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Fresno State ML over Purdue (+158)
Fresno State produced a strong 2022 campaign last year with a 10-4 record that led to the Mountain West title. The Bulldogs were one of the better defensive teams, allowing an average of 20.4 points per game, which ranked 13th in the nation. Their offense was solid, as well, sitting in the top third of the nation. They averaged 30.2 points per game and ranked 42nd. Purdue’s season was lackluster – and that’s actually an understatement even though the Boilermakers backed their way into the Big Ten Championship Game. They finished 8-6, which is nothing to write home about. Their offense averaged 29.5 points per game, but that ranked just 84th in the country. In comparison, their defense was also in the bottom half (24.3 points per game allowed). Fresno State has to be considered one of the better mid-major teams in the country and should certainly make a run for a second straight Mountain West title. The Bulldogs have a great chance to win this one outright.
North Carolina -2.5 over South Carolina (-110)
This is an intriguing quarterback battle between Drake Maye of North Carolina and Spencer Rattler of South Carolina. One (Rattler) was thought to be a Heisman Trophy candidate several years ago. The other (Maye) is a Heisman candidate right now. Maye was incredible as a freshman last season and figures to be even better now that he has some college football experience under his belt. Neither one these teams could play any defense in 2022, and if that remains the case then North Carolina should have the edge in an offensive shootout. South Carolina ended last year in fine form, but its offense was a middle-of-the-pack unit in offensive EPA, success rate and EPA margin. The ‘Cocks seem overrated by the market, so I will happily give less than field goal’s worth of points.
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Texas Tech -14 over Wyoming (-110)
The Red Raiders’ offense in 2023 is going to be just as you would expect: throw it vertically…and then throw it vertically some more. That’s the way it was last season under new head coach Joey McGuire and it’s obviously not going to change in his second go-around. QB Tyler Shough is the key. He battled injuries throughout the 2022 campaign, but a healthy Shough should mean a lot of Texas Tech touchdowns. The defense is a bit of a liability, as it usually is in Lubbock, but that shouldn’t be exposed too much by Wyoming. The Cowboys aren’t very explosive. In fact, they are about as opposite from the Red Raiders as you can get. They like to run the ball and run it between the tackles. That approach might work against the lesser half of the Mountain West, but it is hard to imagine the Wyoming o-line pushing around Texas Tech’s d-line. The bottom line is that Wyoming probably won’t score enough to keep this within 2 touchdowns.
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