Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 1 has already delivered on the promise of what this college football season could be. There have been upsets, exciting finishes and surprising results, including 2 wins coming from underdogs of 21 or more points. Now, after a jam-packed Saturday slate, we get to a trio of games on Sunday to enjoy.
The headline game is a massive showdown between LSU and Florida State and I have built a 3-leg college football parlay of my favorite plays. I cashed my first mega parlay of the season at +610 odds, so let’s keep the momentum going! Without any further ado, let’s look at the three components of our NCAAF mega parlay for Sunday’s action.
Florida State ML (+115)
Rutgers -5.5 (-110)
San Jose State +16.5 (-110)
NCAAF parlay odds: +685
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with an underdog against the spread, an underdog on the money line and one favorite against the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
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Florida State Seminoles ML over LSU Tigers (+115)
Both of these teams are expected to be serious contenders in the College Football Playoff race and each has a quarterback that is good enough to compete for the Heisman Trophy. Jordan Travis has the luxury of having a strong offensive line in front of him, plus the new additions of Keon Coleman and tight end Jaheim Bell, who will join an already excellent pass-catching group headlined by Johnny Wilson. The ‘Noles also have a ton of NFL-level talent on defense, led by Jared Verse. Defensively is where Florida State will hold the most significant advantage in this game, as LSU lost 7 of its top 11 tacklers from 2022. Harold Perkins is a superstar and possibly the best defensive player in college football, but the rest of the Tigers defense will undoubtedly need time to gel with each other early on.
Despite the neutral location, this game is still in Orlando and I expect the crowd to be overwhelming populated with Florida State fans, much like the Superdome was for LSU in last season’s meeting. And even though Jayden Daniels is a Heisman candidate in this own right, I have more confidence in the consistency and dependability of Travis each drive. Given the fact that I would favor Florida State at quarterback, the skill positions and in the trenches on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to back the Seminoles at this plus-money number in this one.
Get our college football picks for all of the Week 1 matchups!
Rutgers Scarlet Knights -5.5 over Northwestern Wildcats (-110)
The Pat Fitzgerald era is over at Northwestern, as the Wildcats enter the 2023 season with a whole host of questions. Now with a defensive-minded head coach and a ton of roster turnover following the Fitzgerald news, it makes sense that the Wildcats would be a somewhat significant underdog to a Rutgers team on the rise.
The Scarlet Knights are going to have a hard time in the loaded Big Ten East division, but there is hope for Greg Schiano’s group. After all, they’re returning 72% of last season’s production on defense, a unit that ranked 38th in opponent points per game. It won’t take much to disrupt a brand new Northwestern offfense, so those returning starts could be key for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 September games. Let’s back them to cover the number at home.
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San Jose State Spartans +16.5 vs Oregon State Beavers (-110)
This is a game that Oregon State should win, but I’m still expecting it to be a lot closer than the market thinks. Jonathan Smith has built a rock-solid program in Corvallis, and the run game should still be dominant this season thanks to a veteran offensive line and strong running back room. D.J. Uiagalelei comes over from Clemson to take over at QB and while he struggles at times in the passing game, there is no question about his running threat. Put all that together and what you have is a Beaver team that can control the clock while running the ball ferociously.
The issue for the Beavers comes on the defensive side of the ball and San Jose State might have the best QB in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordiero. The veteran QB had a solid game against USC a week ago and he should see success against an Oregon State defense that is replacing a number of pieces from last season’s strong campaign. In the long run, I see the Beavers winning this game, but it should be closer than the market thinks.
Be sure to read our full Oregon State vs San Jose State predictions
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