Caleb Wilfinger
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After a busy Saturday slate that saw plenty of surprising results and upsets around the country, there is still one high-profile game that has yet to be played. All eyes will be on Las Vegas on Sunday as one of the marquee games of the weekend features a pair of ranked teams as the LSU Tigers take on the USC Trojans at Allegiant Stadium. This is sure to be an entertaining contest, with plenty of excitement from start to finish between a pair of teams that both have impressive talent to go along with real questions on at least one side of the ball.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full LSU vs USC predictions.
USC to win by 1-10 points (+220)
Over 64.5 (-110)
LSU vs USC Same Game Parlay odds: +512
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as backing USC to win by 1-10 actually increases our value since it actually needs to results to occur (USC winning and LSU keeping the game within 10 points or less). Let’s break down our Same Game Parlay for this matchup.
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USC to win by 1-10 points over LSU (+220)
I’m getting a little exotic with the side portion in this Same Game Parlay over at FanDuel, as we’ll be parlaying the USC money line with LSU +10.5 on an alternate spread to achieve this first leg. While this leg does require multiple conditions for it to cash, I find it hard to believe that a USC victory comes in blowout fashion, particularly with this game priced at well under a touchdown.
I’ve been high on Lincoln Riley’s team for most of the offseason, despite what is a very difficult schedule heading into the campaign. With Caleb Williams gone to the NFL, the offense can now function as more than just a showcase for its quarterbacks incredible talents. On the other side of the ball, Alex Grinch is also out as defensive coordinator and in steps D’Anton Lynn, who just completely reshaped UCLA’s defense into one of the better front sevens in the nation over the last couple of seasons. Lynn will have his work cut out for him in reshaping a USC defense that was 117th in EPA per play allowed in 2023, but I trust that he can change the culture and turn things around quickly.
We know what the Trojans have in store offensively with Miller Moss at quarterback, as he tossed 6 touchdowns in a dominant bowl game victory over Louisville last season. Moss should absolutely excel in a Riley system that simplifies a lot of things and takes some of the pressure off his quarterbacks. The junior should start off strong against an LSU defense that I project to be one of the lesser units in the SEC once again in 2024.
As for the Tigers, Garrett Nussmeier steps in at quarterback and he looked rock solid in relief of Jayden Daniels back in 2023. However, the pressure of going against a quality opponent in his first regular season start could work against the Tigers QB, especially when you factor in all of the new faces on the offensive side of the ball for LSU. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are not walking through that door at the wide receiver position, so Nussmeier will have less to work with than in previous iterations of this Tigers offense. As long as the USC defense is marginally improved in the tackling department (75th in 2023), the Trojans will certainly be in this game late with a chance to win it outright.
Over 64.5 (-110)
We’ve got two teams that are able to generate a ton of explosive plays playing on a fast track in a season opener, and that seems like a recipe for an over on Sunday. While I do expect Lynn to have success with revamping USC’s defense over the course of an entire season, we’re likely not going to see immediately terrific results in the first game of the campaign, particularly against an offense with the talent and explosiveness that LSU has. So, while I do have the Tigers offense taking a step back from last season’s historically great unit, this should still be a pretty successful unit with a QB as talented as Nussmeier at the controls. On the other side, there shouldn’t be a significant drop-off from last season for USC’s offense with Moss back at the helm, and I fully expect Riley’s group to flex against an LSU defense that was 121st in EPA per play and 125th in Finishing Drives in 2023. It’s a high total, but it’s warranted here, so let’s take the over in Las Vegas.
