Sam Avellone
Show Bio
Friday’s Week 1 slate doesn’t offer as many games as Thursday or Saturday, but there are still a couple matchups that stand out more than the rest. Be sure to check out Pickswise throughout the week and season for college football picks on all the big matchups. We went 2-0 on our college football best bets last night, so let’s follow that up and dive into today’s CFB best bets for Friday, targeting Western Michigan vs Wisconsin and TCU vs Stanford.
Want more college football picks? Check out our NCAAF futures betting guide for EVERY Pickswise prediction for the 2024 CFB season
Wisconsin Badgers -23 over Western Michigan Broncos (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Play up to -23.5.
Year 2 of the Luke Fickell and Phil Longo era commences in Madison, Wisconsin at 9:00 ET on Friday night, where the Badgers are laying more than 3 touchdowns against the Western Michigan Broncos. WMU returns plenty of production from last season including their quarterback, their top running back, their top wide receiver and a solid offensive line with all 5 starters having played 300+ snaps last year. However, the defense lost its 2 best pieces in Marshawn Kneeland and Keni-H Lovely to the NFL, which doesn’t bode well for a unit that finished outside the top 100 in scoring last year.
The Broncos have a solid rushing attack that could test a questionable Wisconsin defensive line that lost James Thomspon Jr. to injury, but that’s the only area of WMU’s team that I feel could trouble the Badgers in this contest. Wisconsin is deep and experienced in the secondary and brought in a few quality linebackers via the portal to install behind the defensive line, which should limit the Broncos through the air. Offensively, Wisconsin hopes to be better in year 2 of Longo’s system. Tyler Van Dyke transferred in from Miami and should have better success than Tanner Mordecai down the field given his 24 big time throws. Wisconsin’s pass-catchers aren’t known for creating separation down field, but against this WMU secondary it shouldn’t be a problem. Expect Will Pauling to get a healthy dose of targets after tallying 109 last year with 73 receptions, 834 yards and 6 touchdowns.
On the ground, the Badgers should be very solid with the return of Chez Mellusi so long as he can stay healthy. Fortunately, the Badgers have some depth behind him with Tawee Walker transferring in from Oklahoma and a well-rounded freshman back in Darrion Dupree. All things considered, the Badgers should be able to overwhelm the Broncos with their size and talent advantage despite the lingering concerns about Longo’s long term schematic fit in Madison. Western Michigan hasn’t found much success against Big Ten opponents in recent years either, failing to surpass 14 points in each of its last 3 attempts – which includes a 41-10 loss to an Iowa team that failed to reach 27 points in any other game last season. It’s not the most appealing bet of Week 1, but on a limited Friday card, it’s Badgers or pass against WMU.
Lock in our college football parlay picks for Friday after we cashed yesterday’s at +370 odds!
Stanford Cardinal +9.5 over TCU Horned Frogs (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Play to +8.5.
The final game on Friday evening kicks off in Palo Alto, California at 10:30 pm ET between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Stanford Cardinal. Stanford struggled mightily in Troy Taylor’s first year as head coach, earning just 3 victories and losing 5 of their 6 games against ranked opponents by more than 30 points. However, the Cardinal return almost their entire roster from a season ago, which should benefit this team tremendously. Quarterback Ashton Daniels returns behind an offensive line that brings back every major contributor, and he will have his top 4 receivers and top tight end back in the mix as well.
This offense was not particularly effective last season, but I do expect some progression this year as 2 of their linemen transition into their true sophomore campaigns following a good amount of playing time as freshmen and a full offseason of training. The defensive unit has to improve as well after finishing 132nd in total defense and scoring defense in 2023. Fortunately for Stanford, Taylor has a history of winning with a 30-8 record in 3 non-COVID seasons at Sacramento State, reaching the FCS Playoffs in each of those seasons. I think he can be trusted to lead the Cardinal to noticeable improvement on both sides of the ball in his 2nd season with the program.
TCU replaced a lot of production from last season’s roster, including its 4 best offensive linemen and its star running back. This season’s offensive line consists of 2 returning players with 450+ snaps each, but they both earned below-average PFF pass-blocking grades. They will be joined by 3 transfers, meaning this unit won’t have any experience playing together when they take the field to protect returning quarterback Josh Hoover on Friday. Hoover has most of his top pass-catchers back, but the Horned Frogs lost both of their touchdown leaders in tight end Jared Wiley and running back Emani Bailey to the Kansas City Chiefs. Defensively, TCU returns over 70% of its production, but a few of its best pieces in Josh Newton, Nook Bradford and Damonic Williams are no longer with the program.
While TCU may have slightly more roster talent than Stanford, I have more questions than answers about the Horned Frogs’ new pieces on both sides of the ball – including their new defensive coordinator and his scheme fit with this defense. Stanford’s continuity following Taylor’s 2nd offseason with the program should provide the Cardinal with a solid floor in this matchup, and it doesn’t hurt that Stanford has experience playing against pass-happy offenses like Sonny Dykes’ in the now-defunct Pac-12.
Get our college football predictions for rest of Friday’s action, after we went 6-0-1 on picks yesterday
