Caleb Wilfinger
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After an entertaining Week 0 slate, the 2022 college football season kicks off in full on Thursday. Last weekend’s games served as a nice appetizer, but the true chase for a National Championship begins in Week 1.
Along with my weekly best bets pieces, I’ll also be targeting underdogs who could compete (and win) each week. With a full slate of games this week, there are plenty of matchups where the ‘dog could be frisky.
Let’s take a look at our best underdog bets for Week 1 of the college football season.
Boise State ML (+130) over Oregon State
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s hard not to think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Boise State is listed as the favorite by most predictive metrics, and I tend to agree. The Broncos return quarterback Hank Bachmeier along with a slew of other production. Yes, they did lose wideout Khalil Shakir to the NFL, but George Holani returns at running back after averaging nearly 5 yards per carry last fall. Bachmeier was extremely solid a year ago and his performance should only increase in his second season in Tim Plough’s system. Corvallis is a tough place but play, but Boise State’s excellent defense should set the tone early. The Broncos were a top 30 unit in rushing success rate allowed and top 25 in passing success rate allowed last season. With most of the starting unit back, the Boise defense should make life difficult for the Beavers.
Oregon State’s offense was outstanding in 2021, ranking in the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate. However, the Beavers did lose their top running back, All-Pac 12 center and starting right guard in the offseason. Oregon State will need to score in order to make up for their poor defense, which ranked 95th in EPA per play last year. This is not an offense built to come from behind, so if Bachmeier plays a clean game, the Broncos should hold a considerable edge. I would bet Boise State +3 and the money line at +120 or better.
We’ll have picks for EVERY college football game this season
Texas State ML (+100) over Nevada
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
In my story last week I made the case for fading Nevada early and often this season. While the Wolfpack did cover the spread in their season opener, they were not the right side. For starters, Nevada was aided by 5 turnovers from New Mexico State, finishing +4 in the turnover battle. The Wolfpack barely averaged more than 3 yards per play through the air, to the tune of just 78 passing yards. Their touchdown drives came when they started in Aztecs territory after New Mexico State turned it over. Nevada’s offense looked awful in its first game under new head coach Ken Wilson. In fact, the Wolfpack were actually out-gained by New Mexico State. However, they still escaped with a cover thanks to the ineptitude of their opponent.
Enter Texas State. The Bobcats aren’t anything special, but they are a better team than New Mexico State. Crucially, they picked up quarterback Layne Hatcher, who was languishing over at Arkansas State. With an offense that returns most of its production and a defense with a full 60 minutes of film of Nevada’s awful passing attack, Texas State should be favored in this one. This line originally opened at Texas State +5.5, but has since taken on steam since Sunday. Despite not getting the best of the number, a play on the Bobcats at +100 or better is one of my favorite bets of Week 1.
Southern Miss +3.5 (-105) vs Liberty
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
To close out my favorite underdogs in Week 1, let’s go to Hattiesburg, Mississippi and back this Sun Belt sleeper. Southern Miss is in a good spot to make a statement against a Group of 5 stalwart. It starts on the defensive side, as this total has dropped all week and it’s easy to see why. Southern Miss brings back 86% of its defense from 2021, including its top 10 tacklers. This was a team that forced a ton of turnovers last season, which bodes well against new Liberty quarterback Charlie Brewer. Brewer struggled at Utah a season ago, and things won’t get easier as the Flames lost half of their offense from a season ago. Where will the explosiveness come without Malik Willis? I’m not sure we’ll find that out on Saturday.
While Liberty has the talent edge on paper, the Flames are still implementing a ton of new personnel against a team that has an identity. As long as the Golden Eagles show up on defense, they should compete in this one. I like getting Southern Miss at over a field goal, and I’d also sprinkle a bit on the Golden Eagles money line at +140 or better.
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