Caleb Wilfinger
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After an offseason that was both long and eventful, we’ve finally arrived at the start of the 2024 college football season. The battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins in just a few days and won’t slow down until a champion is crowned next January. Here at Pickswise, our college football experts have already written up a plethora of futures content for the upcoming season, including extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure.
With preview season in the rearview mirror, it’s time to get into the Week 0 slate. As with most Week 0 slates in recent years, this schedule isn’t the best on paper. However, there is still value to be had on the board, and I’ve built a 3-leg college football parlay of my favorite plays on the slate. Let’s look at the three components of our NCAAF mega parlay for Saturday’s Week 0 action.
SMU team total over 40.5 (-122)
Florida State -10.5 (-110)
Montana State to win by 1-13 points (+200)
NCAAF Parlay odds: +950
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with one favorite against the spread, one team total and a special win margin bet. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
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SMU team total over 40.5 vs Nevada (-122)
This is an SMU team that was excellent at dominating bad competition in 2023 (4-1 as 21+ point favorites) and they’ll get another chance to do so in this season opener. The Mustangs boast a very balanced attack, in large part due to one of the better running back rooms in the ACC and what is possibly the top wide receiver room in the conference. Preston Stone returns at quarterback, and while he’s not expected to play the entire game in what is his first action back since suffering a broken left fibula last November, I expect him to be on the field for at least the entirety of the first half. It also helps our wager that backup quarterback Kevin Jennings has plenty of experience in a starting role and should be able to comfortably handle the offense with Stone on the sideline.
SMU shouldn’t see much resistance from a Nevada defense that was 126th in success rate and outside the top 100 in Early Downs EPA a season ago per College Football Data. The Wolfpack aren’t much better on offense, checking in at 125th in success rate and 121st in EPA per play in 2023. Therefore, I fully expect head coach Jeff Choate to emphasize running the ball and chew up some clock in order to prevent the game from getting away from his team in the early going. However, this should play right into the hands of a stout SMU defense that was 9th in Early Downs EPA, 22nd in rushing success rate in 2023. There should be plenty of possessions for SMU in this contest, and we’re getting Stone and Jennings to combined for 2 complete halves of football here, which should lead to SMU clearing its team total of 40.5.
Get our college football picks for all of the Week 0 matchups!
Florida State Seminoles -10.5 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-110)
After breaking down this game from all different angles, I’m glad to fade the market influencers in this ACC contest by backing Florida State to cover a double digit spread against Georgia Tech. While the Yellow Jackets did win 6 games and surprise some teams a season ago, this was still a team that won multiple one-score games in dramatic fashion after trailing in the 4th quarter. That’s not sustainable in the long run, especially against a team of Florida State’s caliber. Led by Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes in the backfield, this Yellow Jackets offense that should see no trouble putting up points on teams without buttoned-up defenses this season. However, that’s not the case for their opponent this week, as Mike Norvell and the Seminoles have routinely churned out very strong defensive fronts over the last couple of years.
Despite losing a number of key pieces from last season’s unit to the NFL, Florida State reloaded in the transfer portal and should have a very solid defense once again. On the offensive side of the ball, Florida State is getting a veteran quarterback in D.J. Uiagalelei to lead another talented group of skill position players. The former Clemson and Oregon State quarterback likely won’t give this team a high ceiling, but what he does provide is a steady hand who raises the floor of an offense that lost a bunch of talent on the outside in the offseason. It wouldn’t surprise me if the ‘Noles put up a ton of points in this game, so let’s back Florida State to win by double-digits on Saturday.
Be sure to get our college football expert’s win total best bets before Week 0 kicks off!
Montana State Bobcats to win by 1-13 points over New Mexico Lobos (+200)
We’ve got an FCS vs FBS clash on our hands here in which Montana State, the FCS team, is laying points on the road at New Mexico – the FBS team. This doesn’t happen much in college football, but when we do it’s typically a good spot for the favored FCS program, and that’s the case in this one. However, given that the number has gotten away from us a bit, I’d rather target the Bobcats to win the game by 2 scores or fewer, instead of projecting a blowout on the road in the opening week of the season.
Along with dual-threat quarterback Tommy Mellott, the Bobcats bring back their entire offensive line, top 4 running backs and top pass-catcher from a unit that was 2nd in the FCS in scoring and rushing. On the other side of the ball, Montana State will have 3 starters back on the line, 2 of its top 3 linebackers, and a myriad of pieces in the secondary that played at least 300 snaps last season. However, this is still a Lobos team that brings back just 41% of its returning production from a season ago and will be playing for a new coach in Bronco Mendenhall. I do expect Mendenhall to coach up this team enough to keep the scoreline somewhat respectable, but this is still too much of a mismatch for me to recommend anything but a win for Montana State in this matchup.
Be sure to check out our full Montana State vs New Mexico predictions
