Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football season is finally here. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins this Saturday and won’t slow down until December. The campaign kicks off with a Week 0 slate that isn’t the most exciting, but does have some good value bets of which to take advantage. At the very least, it will wet the appetite before next week’s full slate of games.
Along with my weekly best bets pieces, I’ll also be targeting underdogs who could compete (and win) each week. While this week’s slate is light, there are still a few matchups where the ‘dog could be frisky.
Let’s take a look at our best underdog bets for the opening week of the college football season.
New Mexico State +9 (-110) vs Nevada
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
As I mentioned in my best bets piece for this weekend, the market has been fading Nevada all offseason. This is for good reason, as the Wolfpack are basically starting from scratch this season. Losing Carson Strong and Romeo Doubs hurts, but a bigger issue is that Nevada’s offensive line returns just 10% of its production from last year. Following Strong’s departure, the Wolfpack lost coach Jay Norvell to Colorado State, along with a slew of players in the transfer portal. The same can’t be said of New Mexico State, which boasts a veteran-laden team on both sides of the ball.
This number has been steamed down from 13, but it still has value in my eyes. Nevada is implementing a brand new scheme on both sides of the ball against a team that has an identity. New Mexico State isn’t very good, but these teams are closer than the spread would indicate. With the Wolfpack’s uncertainty at the quarterback position, this game could figure to be a low-scoring affair. With that in mind, this is simply too many points. I’d back New Mexico State at anything over a touchdown, and sprinkle a bit on the money line at +250 or better.
We’ll have picks for EVERY college football game this season
North Texas vs UTEP alternate under 51.5 (+125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Since this is a pretty small slate, I had to get creative with finding a second “underdog” to recommend. In this case, I like taking an alternate total at plus money in this Conference USA matchup. For starters, these teams are fairly evenly matched and bring back similar teams from last season. In their meeting last fall, North Texas bested UTEP 20-17 in a grind-it-out affair. Both offenses ran the clock and the defenses dictated play for most of the game. Therefore, there is precedent for how we can attack this total.
Both teams will want to win in ways that coincide with an under. For the Miners, their defense was the team’s true strength in 2021, ranking 53rd in the nation in scoring defense. On the other side, North Texas is strictly a run-first offense and the Mean Green should look to win this game via their ground dominance. This game total currently sits at 54.5 or 55 at most sportsbooks. And while those are key numbers, 51 is still the biggest key number in the totals market. With only 37 points scored in last year’s matchup and a similar game script projected for this contest, I like the value we’re getting here by lowering the total a bit while staying above a key number. Let’s hope for another slow-paced defensive struggle in El Paso on Saturday.
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