Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football season is finally here. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins this Saturday and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s national championship saw Georgia knock off Alabama to claim its first title since 1980. Could we see that matchup again come January? It’s certainly possible.
But before we can start thinking about the National Championship, there’s an entire regular season for us to enjoy. The campaign kicks off with a Week 0 slate that isn’t the most exciting but does have some good value bets of which to take advantage. At the very least it will wet the appetite before next week’s full slate of games.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for the opening week of the college football season.
UTEP ML (+100) over North Texas
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The UTEP Miners were one of the Group of 5’s best stories a season ago. UTEP won 6 of its first 7 games to open the campaign, easily surpassing its 2021 win total and earning a bowl game appearance. And while the Mean Green started off with a 1-6 record, they rallied to win their last 5 contests to make a bowl game, as well. Last season’s meeting between these teams was a close affair, and I expect the same this time around. That being said, this is a very favorable line for a Miners team that went 5-1 at home in 2021.
Gavin Hardison is back at quarterback for UTEP, and I expect him to take another step forward this season after a successful 2021 campaign. The Miners were one of the best teams are creating explosive plays, but their defense was the team’s true strength. UTEP was 53rd in the nation in scoring defense last season, compared to 119th in 2020. Furthermore, they retained most of their defensive talent and should be equipped to handle the Mean Green. As long as the Miners can contain North Texas’ rushing attack, they will have the clear edge at home. After losing 20-17 last fall, this is a nice conference revenge spot for the Miners to open the season. I’d play the UTEP money line up to -120.
Which Group of 5 team can make the College Football Playoff?
New Mexico State +9 (-110) vs Nevada
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This line was more attractive when it was sitting at double-digits, but it currently still has value. While New Mexico State is slightly improved from a season ago, the Aggies are still one of the Group of 5’s lesser teams. However, the same can now be said for Nevada. In fact, this pick is more of a fade of the Wolfpack than an endorsement of New Mexico State.
Nevada is basically starting from scratch this fall after finishing with an 8-5 record in 2021. The Wolfpack lost their star QB/WR duo of Carson Strong and Romeo Doubs, who helped propel Nevada’s top-10 passing offense last season. Besides having a new starter quarterback, the Wolfpack’s offensive line returns just 10% of its production from last year. Additionally, they lost coach Jay Norvell to Colorado State, along with a slew of players in the transfer portal. Compare that to New Mexico State — which boasts a veteran-laden team on both sides of the ball — and Nevada is at a clear disadvantage here. With first-time head coach Ken Wilson making his debut and an uncertainty at the quarterback position, this game could figure to be a low-scoring affair. With that in mind, this is simply too many points. I’d back New Mexico State at anything over a touchdown.
Vanderbilt -6.5 (-110) over Hawaii
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
To close out our best bets, we’re headed to the island for a matchup between struggling teams. There is rarely an instance in which I want to back Vanderbilt, but Hawaii is a mess. The Rainbow Warriors have a new head coach at the helm, but that won’t fix their inexperience across the board. They are littered with new starters on both sides of the ball, including at quarterback and in the trenches. That doesn’t bode well against an SEC opponent that returns the majority of its production on offense and defense. If the Commodores weren’t a 2-10 team a season ago, this line would be closer to double-digits.
I usually find value with the Rainbow Warriors in the home underdog role, as the extended travel usually hurts their opponents. However, Hawaii is pretty much a brand-new team and it typically takes time to figure things out. Vanderbilt simply has much more in place from a season ago to prepare for this matchup. Given their returning production and the Commodores’ 8-2 ATS road record of late, I don’t mind laying the points here.
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