Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s been a long and eventful spring and summer, and now the 2024 college football season is finally upon us. The battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins in just a few days and won’t slow down until a champion is crowned next January. Last season’s National Championship game saw Michigan knock off Washington to claim its first national title in 27 years. With a whole host of teams added to the playing field in this new playoff format, who will reach the pinnacle of the sport this season? It’s almost time to find out.
With the offseason chaos behind us and our extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to get into the Week 0 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. Much like the year prior, the 2023 season was a profitable one for this column, as I finished with a win rate of 60%, highlighted by a 9-2 run to close out bowl season and the College Football Playoff. Hopefully you cashed with me!
As with most Week 0 slates in recent years, this isn’t the most exciting platter of games on paper — but there are some good value bets of which we can take advantage. At the very least, it will whet the appetite before next week’s massive slate of games. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 0 as the college football season gets underway.
Want more college football picks? Check out our NCAAF futures betting guide for EVERY Pickswise prediction for the 2024 CFB season
Florida State Seminoles -10 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Florida State -11.
Unlike a season ago, the centerpiece game of this Week 0 slate belongs to the ACC, as the Florida State Seminoles will take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Dublin, Ireland to kick off the 2024 campaign.
While head coach Brent Key’s team did win 6 games and surprise some teams in the process last fall, the Yellow Jackets are due for a bit of regression after winning multiple one-score games when trailing in the fourth quarter (victories over Miami and North Carolina come to mind). Led by Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes in the backfield, this is an offense that should see no trouble putting up points on teams without buttoned-up defenses this season. Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, Mike Norvell and this Seminoles coaching staff have routinely churned out very strong defensive fronts over the last couple of years and they should have a very solid defense once again after reloading in the transfer portal. Over on offense, Florida State is getting a veteran quarterback in D.J. Uiagalelei to lead this unit. Uiagalelei likely won’t give this team a high ceiling, but what he does provide is a steady hand who should give this offense a high floor after losing a bunch of talent on the outside in the offseason.
While starting with a game against an ACC foe across the pond isn’t the easiest situation for either side, I trust Norvell and Florida State to work out the kinks with its offense as the game goes along, especially against a porous Yellow Jackets defensive unit. Much like what we saw last season, teams will be able to run on Georgia Tech, and that’s exactly what the ‘Noles want to do to set the tone in the season opener. I could certainly see Florida State focusing on overpowering Georgia Tech at the line of scrimmage and grinding this Yellow Jackets defense to a pulp while keeping their offense on the sideline. This number has gone a bit too far, so I’ll gladly back the Seminoles to win by double-digits in this one.
Be sure to check out our full Florida State vs Georgia Tech predictions
SMU Mustangs team total over 40.5 vs Nevada Wolfpack (-120)
Odds widely available at time of publishing.
This is a game where we have a clear mismatch between 2 teams trending in opposite directions. SMU has been a hot team in the market, and as someone who was very bullish on the Mustangs a season ago, I certainly agree with the optimism around this team as they make the jump to the ACC. Rhett Lashlee’s group was excellent at dominating bad teams in 2023 (4-1 as 21+ point favorites) and they’ll get another chance to do so in this season opener. The Mustangs boast a very balanced attack, thanks to one of the better running back rooms in the ACC and quite possibly the top wide receiver room in the conference. Preston Stone returns at quarterback, and while he’s not expected to play the entire game in what is his first action back since suffering a broken left fibula last November, he should certainly lead multiple touchdown drives during his time on the field. It also helps that backup quarterback Kevin Jennings has plenty of experience in a starting role after leading SMU to victory in the AAC title game last season.
The biggest edge I have in this game in the SMU offense against a Nevada defense that was 126th in success rate and outside the top 100 in Early Downs EPA a season ago. The Wolfpack aren’t much better on offense, checking in at 125th in success rate and 121st in EPA per play in 2023. New head coach Jeff Choate will likely be looking to run the ball and chew up some clock in order to prevent the game from getting away from his team in the early going. However, that plays right into the hands of this stout SMU defense (9th in Early Downs EPA, 22nd in rushing success rate in 2023).
I expect the ponies to get a ton of possessions in this game, particularly in the first half, which should lead to SMU clearing its team total of 40.5 in the market. I’m especially confident in this wager considering we’ll get Stone and Jennings to combined for 2 complete halves of football. For those backing SMU, there’s also the advantage of not having a look-ahead spot next week that the Mustangs could be focusing on, as they’ll take on Houston Christian in Week 1.
Read our full SMU vs Nevada prediction
