Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s been a long and eventful college football season, and now the best time of the year on the calendar has finally arrived. After Championship Weekend produced more chaos earlier this month, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field was announced on December 8, which also officially marked the start of bowl season. But before we can get to the opening round of the College Football Playoff in all of its glory, we’ve got plenty of bowl games over the next couple of days to keep us entertained.
With that said, it’s time to dive into Wednesday’s slate of bowl games with my college football best bets column. I’m on an 11-4 best bets run over the last 5 weeks and bowl season has been kind to me in the past, so let’s keep that momentum going this year! There are a pair of bowl games taking place on Wednesday and I was able to find some value with an angle in each game. Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for the Boca Raton Bowl and LA Bowl.
Boca Raton Bowl best bet: James Madison Dukes -6.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -7.
A season ago, James Madison lost to Air Force in a bowl game that the program clearly wanted to win. This time around, I have a feeling the Dukes will leave little doubt in the Boca Raton Bowl, especially against a Western Kentucky team that is not only inferior but also one that is dealing with a ton of uncertainty and roster upheaval thanks to opt-outs and the transfer portal. While starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp is expected to play in this one, the team could theoretically be without its top 2 wide receivers, starting right guard, 2 defensive ends, a defensive tackle, top linebacker, multiple players in the secondary and a host of others. Many Western Kentucky players have played in bowl games under coach Tyson Helton in the past, but this team is set to lose more players than usual this time around. This is also a bit of a dream-crusher spot for the Hilltoppers, as Western Kentucky was routed in the Conference USA title game by Jacksonville State just a week after the Hilltoppers advanced to the championship game on a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
On the other side, there aren’t many players on James Madison in the transfer portal, and what we do know is that the Dukes have the best unit on the field with their defense. This unit has been stout all season long, sitting at 5th nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA, 18th in net points per drive and 14th in 3rd down success rate (College Football Insiders). This is a defense that has also seen a very similar offensive scheme to what Western Kentucky’s offense (97th in opponent adjusted EPA per play) runs, thanks to games against Marshall and Southern Miss earlier this season. The Hilltoppers’ defense is outside the top 100 in success rate and EPA per play, and their offense has cratered over the last month. All signs point to a convincing James Madison victory in this one.
Read our full Western Kentucky vs James Madison prediction for the Boca Raton Bowl
LA Bowl best bet: California Golden Bears vs UNLV Rebels Under 48.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5
Where do I even start with this game? When odds were released, I immediately grabbed California as a short underdog in this game, expecting that UNLV would experience plenty of change on the coaching staff side of things, which would lead to opt-outs and key players entering the transfer portal. Over the last couple of years, teams that have lost their coach prior to their bowl game are a whopping 0-9 against the spread and just 2-7 straight up, so getting the Bears as an underdog felt significant. And while that prediction came true — with both head coach Barry Odom and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion leaving for job openings at different programs — the market hasn’t exactly reacted in ways I would expect. A lot of this has to do with the fact that California also experienced a massive shock within its program, as quarterback Fernando Mendoza entered the transfer portal last week and won’t be playing in this game. This is also significant as it relates to this game because the backup quarterback, Chandler Rogers, is dealing with an injury and isn’t expected to play, which has left CJ Harris — an Ohio transfer and 3rd-string QB — the likely starter.
There is so much uncertainty in this game on both sides, which points me in the direction of the Under. Given Mendzoa’s sudden departure and a general lack of explosiveness on offense without him or its backup quarterback, California should operate with a run-heavy gameplan in this one. It’s hard to know what’s going on with this Bears offense, especially since top wideout Nzyiah Hunter is also in the portal. Play-calling duties are also not going to be in the hands of the offensive coordinator, but rather the passing game coordinator for this game. In that same token, it appears that some major players on the UNLV defense, including starting cornerback Tony Grimes and star linebacker Jackson Woodard, are expected to play in this one. On offense, I don’t expect Ricky White to play in this game, so the Rebels offense should be extremely limited in the passing game. Let’s look for a low-scoring matchup in Los Angeles.
Add some extra sizzle to the LA Bowl with our Cal vs UNLV Same Game Parlay picks for tonight
