Ricky Dimon
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The USC Trojans still have 2 games remaining in their regular season, but they have already been reduced to the role of spoiler. With 3 losses, the Trojans are well out of both the Pac-12 title picture and the College Football Playoff hunt. The Oregon Ducks, on the other hand, still have everything to play for with just a single loss to Washington. Since that setback against the Huskies, Oregon has looked like a well-oiled machine heading into this home matchup with USC.
Here is my SGP for this Pac-12 showdown, which will be televised starting at 10:30 pm ET on FOX. Also be sure to check out our full USC vs Oregon predictions.
Oregon -16.5 alternate spread (+100)
Bo Nix to record 4+ passing touchdowns (+194)
Caleb Williams Over 290.5 passing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +896
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throwing touchdown passes left and right would obviously work well with a big win by Oregon. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing USC QB Caleb Williams to have a nig night through the air. But even if that happens, there is no reason why the Ducks can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Oregon -16.5 alternate spread (+100)
USC has dropped 3 of its last 4 games and it has been lucky to escape in a couple of other outings. These just aren’t the Trojans we expected to see when the season began, and as a result some of the luster has been taken away from this showdown. Oregon won’t mind, of course. The Ducks have an easier matchup than expected but at the same time they will remain extremely motivated since they need to win for both their conference and national prospects. If not for a thrilling 36-33 loss to Washington, Oregon would be undefeated and in the current CFP lineup with room to spare. This just isn’t a good matchup for USC. The Trojans are one of the worst defensive squads in the country and not even the best defenses can contain Oregon. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks are stout and should force more than enough punts and turnovers to win this one going away.
Bo Nix to record 4+ passing touchdowns (+194)
Nix is fourth in the nation in passing touchdowns per game. He has recorded multiple TD passes in every single outing so far this year, including 3 on 3 occasions and 4 in 2 of the last 5 games. Now he has the best possible matchup in the form of an atrocious USC defense. The Trojans are allowing 34.5 points and 436 yards per game – despite having not faced any offense quite like that of Oregon. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired at the beginning of the week, to the surprise of no one. That may be a good thing in the long run, but it won’t be an immediate fix. If anything, the Trojans will have even less of an idea of what they are doing out there defensively than normal. Count on Nix going absolutely wild on Saturday.
Caleb Williams Over 290.5 passing yards (-114)
If there is any good news for USC, it’s that this team is averaging 485.5 yards and 45.5 points per game. Offense is not the problem, to put it mildly. Williams has exceeded the 300-yard mark 5 times in 2023, including performances of 369 and 403. He should have no trouble going over Saturday’s quota based on the simple fact that I expect his team to be playing from way behind the entire way. If that’s the case, the Trojans will have to air it out early and often. Williams has attempted 40 passes twice this season and I anticipate him launching it even more frequently this weekend.
