Caleb Wilfinger
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Championship Week is finally here, and with it comes what might be the biggest game in Group of 5 history on Friday. All eyes will be on Boise, Idaho on Friday evening as one of the marquee games of the weekend features a pair of ranked teams vying for the coveted Group of 5 automatic berth in the College Football Playoff berth. That’s right, the Boise State Broncos are set to host the UNLV Rebels on the blue turf in a rematch of a close, well-played game between these teams earlier this season. This is sure to be an excellent contest and should be one of the best games of the weekend in what is an absolutely loaded slate of football. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Let’s get into our UNLV vs Boise State Same Game Parlay picks, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on FOX. You can also find out our college football picks for EVERY championship game this weekend.
Boise State to win by 1-7 points (+280)
Under 57.5 (-105)
UNLV vs Boise State Same Game Parlay odds: +416
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Boise State to win by 1-7 points over UNLV (+280)
All odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I’m getting a little exotic with the side portion in this Same Game Parlay over at FanDuel, as we’ll be parlaying the Boise State money line with UNLV +7.5 on an alternate spread to achieve this first leg. While this leg does require multiple conditions for it to cash, I find it hard to believe that a Boise victory comes in blowout fashion, particularly with this game priced at under a touchdown.
While most college football fans are likely familiar with Boise State, this UNLV team has been excellent all season long, including a recent stretch of games where the Rebels have looked absolutely dominant, while the Broncos have stumbled a bit through the last month of conference play. Therefore, we’ve seen the Rebels take some sharp money in this game, but I just can’t get there with projecting the Broncos to lose at home in what is certainly the biggest game in program history for UNLV, and in a very hostile environment to boot.
Much has been made of the fact that all-world running back Ashton Jeanty was held to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry in the first meeting, a game where his longest rush was 16 yards. However, Jeanty was pretty banged up in that contest and the Boise State offensive line is also noticeably healthier heading into this game than it was over the last five contests. On the other side, the Rebels are led by quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who has 26 total touchdowns and has accounted for more than 2,500 yards of offense this season. With that said, he’s in for a difficult task against a Boise State defense that generates pressure and gets after the quarterback better than nearly every other team in the nation. This is a game between a pair of pretty evenly-matched teams, so I’m anticipating a close contest with Boise State ultimately coming out on top.
Read our full UNLV vs Boise State prediction for the MWC Championship game
Under 57.5 (-105)
Back in the first meeting between these teams in October, there were some key plays that led to quick scoring drives, including a turnover that led to a Boise State 7-yard touchdown drive late in the game. The Broncos were also 4-for-4 on 4th down, which certainly extended drives and led to points. There was a lot of variance in the first meeting and the game still only finished with 53 total points. With that in mind, the current number of 57.5 is a bit too inflated when both of these defenses are excellent on early downs (21st and 22nd in early downs EPA respectively) and showed the ability to disrupt the opposing offense in that previous meeting.
As previously mentioned, the Rebels were able to slow down Jeanty in that first meeting and they should still have the blueprint for how to contain the Heisman hopeful and force Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen to beat them instead. As for UNLV’s offense, the Rebels should keep the ball on the ground and look to minimize any mistakes or turnovers in the passing game against a Boise State defense that is trending up of late. This creates a game script that should be conducive to an under, and it certainly helps matters that both teams and coaching staffs could be a bit tight in a game of this magnitude.
Don’t miss our expert’s college football best bets for Friday’s championship games, featuring WKU vs Jacksonville State and Tulane vs Army
