Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and eventful college football regular season, the most wonderful time of the year is here. Bowl season has arrived and with it comes a myriad of interesting games between teams that we don’t often see paired up against each other in a neutral site setting. This year’s installment of the LA Bowl features a resurgent Boise State team against a UCLA team that is limping into the postseason.
Will UCLA finish off 2023 with a much-needed victory or can Boise State finish its up-and-down season with a flourish? Let’s get into it.
Here is my Boise State vs UCLA Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Boise State vs UCLA predictions.
Under 48.5 (-110)
Ethan Garbers under 210.5 passing yards (-110)
Ashton Jeanty to score a touchdown (-130)
Same Game Parlay odds: +545
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you don’t have to correlate the plays and your odds will increase as a result. That is some of the plan here, as the game going under doesn’t necessarily correlate with Ashton Jeanty scoring a touchdown.
Under 48.5 (-110)
Boise State managed to completely turn its season around in a big way over the past month. Following the firing of head coach Andy Avalos, the Broncos ended up with a conference championship, finishing the season with dominant victories over Utah State, Air Force and UNLV. However, we shouldn’t expect to see starting quarterback Taylen Green (transferred to Arkansas) and the Broncos’ top 2 wide receivers in Eric McAlister as well as Stefan Cobbs. This Bruins team hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire offensively, scoring more than 10 points just once in the final 4 weeks of the regular season. But on the other side of the ball, this is still a defensive unit that will be able to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. I also can’t expect much from a Bruins offense that is starting Ethan Garbers under center with some serious uncertainty at the key skill positions. Let’s roll with the under on Saturday evening.
Ethan Garbers under 210.5 passing yards (-110)
Given that I already think this will be a low-scoring game, it’s hard for me to back the over on many offensive props — especially in a game in which I’m not confident in either quarterback. Ethan Garbers has struggled in passing situations against quality opposition this season, including a combined 298 yards against Arizona and USC last month. Games where Garbers exceeded this number came in instances against Colorado and Stanford, teams that are both well outside the top 100 in EPA per dropback on the season (CFB-Graphs). The UCLA quarterback has thrown for just 984 yards in 6 starts this season under center, so I’ll happily fade him here against a solid Broncos defensive unit that should stay hot on Saturday.
Ashton Jeanty to score a touchdown (-130)
One of the best running backs in all of college football will play in this game for Boise State, and that matters a lot considering the game script that I’m anticipating. Boise State will also be forced start a third-string quarterback with little to no college experience on Saturday, which should ultimately lead us to more use of Ashton Jeanty on the ground — and I still expect him to see success against this stout UCLA defense. We also know that the Bruins will be without some key defensive contributors as well as defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who is off to crosstown rival USC. Given that Jeanty should get plenty of carries against a slightly weaker Bruins defensive front, there should be opportunities for him to find the end zone. Let’s get to the window with Jeanty.
