Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s been a long and eventful college football season, and now the best time of the year on the calendar has finally arrived. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has already delivered plenty of action and excitement, but before we can play the quartet of fantastic quarterfinal games, there are plenty of bowl games for bettors to enjoy in the meantime. Action picks back up post-Christmas with a trio of games on December 26, including the Game Above Sports Bowl, the Rate Bowl and the 68 Ventures Bowl.
With that said, it’s time to dive into Thursday’s slate of bowl games with my college football best bets column. I’m on a 14-5 best bets run and bowl season has been kind to me in the past, so let’s keep that momentum going this year! Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for Thursday’s games.
Toledo Rockets +7.5 over Pittsburgh Panthers (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 7.
Pittsburgh was certainly one of the more fraudulent teams in the country after getting out to a shocking 7-0 start halfway through the campaign. However, the shoe would finally drop in a major way for this Pitt team. The second half of the season wasn’t very kind to the Panthers, as Pat Narduzzi’s team ended the year on a 5-game losing streak and even had to change quarterbacks thanks to an injury to Eli Holstein. This was a team that was embarrassed in multiple games down the stretch and still could be without Holstein in this game. In fact, backup quarterback Nate Yarnell has already hit the transfer portal and landed with Texas State, so if Holstein is unable to suit up, it would be redshirt freshman (and walk-on) David Lynch as the player who would get the start under center. That doesn’t bode well for a roster that is already going to be without 15 other players due to either the transfer portal or injury heading into this game.
On the other side, this is a Toledo team that I have’t been all that high on this season either. With that said, this game will be played in Detroit, which is centered in MAC country and will be familiar to Jason Candle and this Toledo program. Tucker Gleason leads an offense that is capable of generating some explosive plays in the passing game, which is how you should attack this below average Pittsburgh defense. There’s also a ton of variance in this game given that we don’t how Holstein would look if he does end up playing, and if that is the case, I’ll take my chances with a solid Toledo defense that allowed just over 21 points per game for the season. In a game that should see both teams struggle at times on offense, I’ll take the points with the underdog since we’re getting over a touchdown here.
Read our full Pittsburgh vs Toledo prediction
Bowling Green Falcons -7.5 over Arkansas State Red Wolves (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Bowling Green -8.5
This game pits a pair of teams against each other that look similar based on record, but couldn’t be more different in their statistical profile. Ultimately, the context around each team’s season is what has me backing Bowling Green in this contest. The Falcons are certainly better than their record, having gone through a brutal nonconference schedule and playing the most difficult conference schedule of any of the MAC contenders. This was a team that got pretty unlucky as well in terms of a box score perspective, as Bowling Green should’ve finished with at least 8 wins based on second order win totals. Despite all of that, if all-world tight end Harold Fanin Jr. doesn’t get injured prior to the MAC title game earlier this month, we could be talking about the Falcons against a stronger opponent than what they’re seeing in this game. Bowling Green is top 30 in passing success rate on offense and 24th in success rate allowed and 29th in points per drive allowed on defense (College Football Insiders), so this is clearly a well-rounded team on both sides of the ball; one that is worthy of being a considerable favorite in this game.
As for Arkansas State, I firmly believe that the Red Wolves could be the worst team playing in a bowl game this season. Much like Old Dominion in 2023, this is a team that won nearly all of its games by one possession, and they actually profiled as a team that should have won closer to 4 games than the 7-5 record they finished with. In fact, Arkansas State had just a single win over a team that qualified for a bowl game, and on top of that, the Red Wolves won that game over South Alabama by just 2 points. Butch Jones has done a solid job in Jonesboro, but this is still a defense that is 130th in success rate allowed, 130th in Early Downs EPA and 124th in points per drive this season. That doesn’t bode well against Fanin Jr. and a veteran Bowling Green offense (32nd in EPA per dropback) that should be well-rested and motivated to finish off its best season in nearly a decade. Let’s lay the points with the Falcons.
Find out our Arkansas State vs Bowling Green prediction for the 68 Ventures Bowl
