Sam Avellone
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Conference championship week is here, and it figures to be a very competitive one considering none of the 9 FBS games currently have spreads greater than 5.5 – including the SEC Championship between Georgia and Texas. This title game will be a rematch from earlier in the season when the Bulldogs went into Austin, jumped on the Longhorns early and never looked back. With both teams considered playoff locks, the stakes in this game may not be as high as in years past. However, being crowned SEC champion is still quite the feat in and of itself, especially if Texas were to win in its first season as a conference member. Being one of the marquee matchup of championship Saturday, I assembled a Georgia vs Texas same game parlay consisting of my 3 favorite bets for this contest. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily for college football picks and CFB predictions on ALL of the bowl and playoff games.
Texas Longhorns ML (-150)
Quintrevion Wisner (TEX) over 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
Gunnar Helm (TEX) over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
Georgia vs Texas same game parlay odds: +375
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
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Texas Longhorns ML (-150) over Georgia Bulldogs
Despite losing to Georgia at home earlier this year, I still have the Longhorns power rated nearly 3 points higher than the Bulldogs at this point in time. Furthermore, I don’t think the first matchup between these teams was very predictive considering 4 of Georgia’s 5 first half drives started in Texas territory. The 30 points Georgia scored were the most Texas allowed at any point this season, and the Longhorns are playing very well defensively coming into this game – which will make it more difficult for Georgia to replicate that success. Since the first meeting in October, Texas is 2nd nationally in PPA per play allowed, and the Longhorns have been much better at finishing drives – yielding about 1 point fewer than the Bulldogs in opposing scoring situations. The Longhorns have also generated more havoc than the Bulldogs in the last 6 weeks, which is going to benefit them against a turnover-prone quarterback in Carson Beck – who has the most interceptions and turnover-worthy plays in the conference. Offensively, Texas should benefit from an improved run game via Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, which is something the Longhorns did not have in the first meeting with the Bulldogs. I also like Texas’ group of receivers more than Georgia’s, as they are more productive and have higher receiving grades per PFF. This game figures to be highly-contested, and while in the Bulldogs’ backyard, the Longhorns should prevail given their recent defensive success and consistency in the ground game.
Quintrevion Wisner (TEX) over 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
It’s hard to ignore what Wisner has done in recent weeks. He has become the focal point of Texas’ run game, carrying the ball 76 total times for 403 yards in his last 3 games. With that amount of volume, he should be able to surpass this number against a Georgia run defense that is 97th in PPA per rush, 78th in rush success rate, 89th in explosiveness per rush and 126th in stuff rate outside of garbage time since Week 9. For what it’s worth, the Bulldogs have allowed an opposing running back to clear 90 rushing yards in 3 straight games – including against UMass at home in Athens.
Read our full prediction on Georgia vs Texas
Gunnar Helm (TEX) over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
Texas tight end Gunnar Helm has been one of Ewers’ most consistent pass catchers, and he draws a fantastic matchup against a Georgia linebacker group that has struggled in coverage this season. Of all 135 FBS tight ends with at least 20 targets, Helm is top 10 in total receiving yards and yards after catch, in addition to top 25 in yards per route run. He surpassed this number on 7 targets in the first matchup with Georgia, and he has attracted at least 5 targets in 4 of Texas’ last 5 games. Given his 12.5 yards per reception, he should clear this number again against Georgia if Ewers continues peppering him with targets.
