Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 2 of the college football season brings us one of the most anticipated nonconference games in years, as the Texas Longhorns travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. On one side, Alabama has had to hear about Georgia’s reign of dominance all summer while dealing with questions at the quarterback position. On the other side, the mood is pretty upbeat in Austin, as Texas is not only the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12, the Longhorns also have one of the deepest rosters in the nation on both sides of the ball. Both teams pretty much held serve in their Week 1 matchups, but now we’ll get to see if either team is a serious contender for the College Football Playoff. This contest kicks off at 7:00 pm ET and will be televised on ESPN.
But before we get started, be sure to check out all of our NCAAF content for Week 2. Let’s get into our same game parlay for the biggest game on this weekend’s slate.
Texas +7.5 (-115)
Over 53.5 (-115)
Jalen Milroe over 50.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +556
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Texas Longhorns +7.5 (-110)
Usually we wouldn’t have much data to work off in order to formulate a prediction for a Week 2 game, but these teams played an extremely competitive game a season ago and the Longhorns finished with a postgame win expectancy of 80% per College Football Data, which suggests they’d win that game more often than not. Now, with Quinn Ewers in his second season under center going up against Jalen Milroe in his second career start, Texas certainly has a clear edge at quarterback. This is also the first massive game at Alabama for its new offensive and defensive coordinators, neither of whom were very impressive calling plays in 2022.
The Longhorns have a ton of depth, experience and returning production on both sides of the ball, and I’m buying the narrative that this Texas team is ready for this challenge. The talent gap between these teams is extremely thin and last year’s meeting illustrated how slim the margins are. If Texas is able to hold its own in the trenches, there’s no reason to believe that it can’t pull off the outright upset — or at least keep it within a touchdown.
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Over 53.5 (-110)
Even though these are 2 defenses that I generally trust, this is simply too much of an adjustment from the posted total of last season’s game. That closing number came in at 64.5, so we’re getting a 11+ point adjustment thanks to the strength of these defenses, and what I presume to be the questions Alabama has at quarterback. However, I don’t think oddsmakers are respecting the game-breaking ability that both of these offenses have.
Ewers has a great wide receiving room available to him against a Alabama secondary that has some questions, while the Longhorns run game should consistently produce results. And while I do have serious concerns about Milroe in terms of downfield passing, I have little doubts that Saban and company withheld the majority of their offensive potential in the Week 1 rout of Middle Tennessee. Both offenses were clearly vanilla in Week 1, so I think we’re getting a bit of value on the over in what should be a close game throughout.
Check out our full Texas vs Alabama predictions
Jalen Milroe over 50.5 rushing yards (-112)
Jalen Milroe has elite speed and should be a consistent threat to run the ball throughout this game. This should concern Steve Sarkisian and his defensive staff given that the Longhorns head coach repeatedly emphasized in his press conference this week that his front seven struggled with maintaining gap integrity. Milroe will likely need to be on his horse in this one, as Texas was able to put a ton of pressure on Bryce Young a season ago, and should effectively rush the quarterback against a Alabama offensive line that still has plenty of questions. I’m convinced that the blazing speed of Milroe will lead to him breaking off at least one run of 20+ yards in this one. He should get at least 10 attempts, so I’ll gladly take over 50.5 rushing yards.
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