Sam Avellone
Show Bio
The nightcap on Saturday’s slate will be the final first round matchup of the College Football Playoff. The Tennessee Volunteers will make their way to Columbus, Ohio to play the Ohio State Buckeyes, being the first SEC team to play in Ohio Stadium in over 35 years. Given the magnitude of Saturday’s college football slate, and this game in particular, I put together a Same Game Parlay consisting of my favorite bets for Volunteers vs Buckeyes. Let’s get right to the picks, and don’t forget to check Pickswise throughout the postseason for college football picks and CFB predictions on all of the bowl and playoff games.
Dylan Sampson (TENN) Over 22.5 rush attempts (-105)
Will Howard (OSU) Under 11.5 rush yards (-115)
Ohio State Buckeyes ML (-280)
Tennessee vs Ohio State Same Game Parlay odds: +450
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Tennessee vs Ohio State predictions.
Dylan Sampson (TENN) Over 22.5 rush attempts (-105)
The Volunteers rely on their stud running back Dylan Sampson more than any other player. He has carried the ball at least 25 times in 5 of his last 6 games against power conference opponents, and I don’t expect anything to change in this matchup. Tennessee will likely want to control possession and keep the ball out of Ohio State’s hands, and there is no better way to do that than with a running back that is one of the best in the country at finding yards after contact and forcing missed tackles.
Read our full prediction for Tennessee vs Ohio State
Will Howard (OSU) Under 11.5 rush yards (-115)
Will Howard hasn’t been the most efficient runner this season. He has only 131 yards on 72 carries, which amounts to just 1.8 yards per attempt. Furthermore, Howard has just 10 carries in Ohio State’s last 3 games, gaining 9 combined yards on those carries. Without 2 starting offensive linemen, I don’t see him being relied upon for rushing production against Tennessee’s defensive front. The Volunteers have been good against mobile quarterbacks throughout the season – with the exception of Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia – yielding less than 3 yards per carry to Michael Hawkins, Taylen Green and Jalen Milroe. They also have a very good pass rush spearheaded by James Pearce Jr, which could overwhelm the makeshift Ohio State offensive line at various points in this game. Remember, sack yards help us in this scenario. Any time Howard is sacked, those negative yards will go against his rushing total.
Ohio State Buckeyes ML over Tennessee Volunteers (-280)
If you read my full prediction for this game, you know I think the Volunteers will keep it close throughout. In fact, I think they may even go into halftime with the lead. However, Ohio State has too much on both sides of the ball to lose this game at home under the lights – an atmosphere they don’t get to enjoy very often being in the Big Ten and playing at noon on Fox most weeks. The Volunteers have struggled with consistency on the road this year, failing to surpass 17 points at Arkansas and Georgia. They even faced a 17-7 deficit after 1 quarter at Vanderbilt before eventually pulling away from the Commodores.
Per the advanced metrics, the Buckeyes have the best defense the Volunteers will have seen to this point. Ohio State finished the regular season #3 in PPA per play allowed outside of garbage time, while leading the country in opposing points per scoring opportunity. Offensively, Ohio State is much more explosive than Tennessee, and is a bit more balanced with a more effective passing game. While I don’t have much confidence in them covering the spread against a tenacious Tennessee squad, I do expect the Buckeyes to come away with the victory on Saturday in Columbus.
