Ricky Dimon
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The college football season is heating up with a huge slate of Week 6 action. There are 4 all-top 10 battles, including No. 3 Iowa vs No. 4 Penn State. Meanwhile, Alabama and Georgia will once again put their undefeated records and top 2 ranking spots on the line. The Crimson Tide await Texas A&M, while the Bulldogs will battle Auburn.
We have free picks on the side and total for all of the big games, which you can view in our NCAAF picks tab. Make sure to also catch up on all our analysis articles in our college football news section. For now we are talking about teasers, and for these we are shifting lines by 6 points. Let’s dive right into the best ones for Week 6.
Penn State +7.5 (6-point tease from +1.5) over Iowa
An over/under of 41 is the smallest of the week. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that teasing 6 points on a +1.5 spread on what is expected to be an incredibly low-scoring game is a lot more valuable than teasing 6 points on something like a +29 spread on what is expected to be a game with a ton of points. Teasing this past multiple key numbers such as 3, 6, and 7 makes this play even more sensible. It’s just hard to see either side winning a classic, defensive-minded Big Ten battle by more than a touchdown.
The Hawkeyes boast a stellar defense, but their offense has not been required to do much and it probably won’t do a lot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are coming off a shutout of Indiana and they have not surrendered more than 20 points in any contest this year. On the other side of the ball, Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford completed 87.5% of his passes against Auburn and has thrown for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns over the past 2 outings. The Nittany Lions have committed only 3 turnovers so far in 2021.
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Alabama -11.5 (6-point tease from -17.5) over Texas A&M
The Crimson Tide sent a message to the rest of the college football world last weekend that they are on a different level from everyone else other than Georgia. Alabama destroyed Ole Miss 42-21, while UGA thrashed Arkansas 37-0 to cement themselves as the top teams in the nation by a country mile. The Tide’s 21-point shellacking of the Rebels was actually even more convincing than the score suggests. They led 35-0 early in the third quarter before it was garbage time the rest of the way.
Although Bama will probably cover 17.5 points, teasing it down to -11.5 should make it almost impossible for Texas A&M to cover. The Aggies are likely even worse than Ole Miss; they barely beat Colorado 10-7 and are now coming off consecutive losses to Arkansas (20-10) and Mississippi State (26-24). This was a 52-24 rout in Alabama’s favor last season and A&M may lose by even more this time around.
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San Diego State -13.5 (6-point tease from -19.5) over New Mexico
San Diego state is a -19.5 favorite and the total is 42. For those counting, that means the Aztecs are expected to win by around 31-11. Even if they don’t dominate quite to that extent, it’s hard to envision New Mexico scoring enough points to keep this within two touchdowns. Teasing the line through 17 and also 14 gives it great value.
The Lobos are on a 3-game losing run following their Week 5 setback against Air Force. Their offense has been absolutely brutal this season. They rank outside the top 100 of the FBS in all major statistical offensive categories. Most importantly, New Mexico is averaging just 16.8 points per game and has managed only 23 in total over its past 3 contests. San Diego State, on the other hand, has just about everything working for it. The Aztecs are a top 10 team nationally in rushing yards per game (251, 9th) and rushing yards allowed per game (46, 2nd), while also ranking in the top 25 for points scored per game (36.8, 23rd) and total yards allowed per game (289.8, 18th).
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