Ricky Dimon
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It’s championship week in college football, the end of which will confirm this year’s College Football Playoff lineup. We already know one team that’s in: top-ranked Georgia is safe even if they lose the SEC Championship to Alabama. Who will join the Dawgs in the national semifinals though? It’s win and in for Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State, but that’s obviously easier said than done.
We have free picks on the side and total for all of the big games on Friday and Saturday, which you can view in our NCAAF picks tab. Make sure to also catch up on all our analysis articles in our college football news section. For now we are talking about teasers, and for these we are shifting lines by 6 points. Let’s dive right into the best ones for championship week.
Utah State +11.5 (6-point tease from +5.5) over San Diego State
San Diego State and Utah State will be squaring off for the first time this season when they meet in the Mountain West Conference Championship. The Aztecs are considerable favorites, but they have been somewhat hindered by their offense all season long. Their passing game has struggled amidst a consistent shuffling of quarterbacks, averaging just 157.5 yards through the air per game. SDSU has also scored more than 23 points just twice in its past seven contests. The Aztecs struggle to contain the pass (235.7 yards allowed per game).
That fits right into the game-plan for this Utah State squad that ranks 15th in the nation in passing yards per game at nearly 305. The Aggies have scored at least 35 points in four out of their past five contests and quarterback Logan Bonner boasts a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during this stretch. Teasing the spread up to 11.5 should be more than enough for Utah State. Moving the spread through the key numbers of 6, 7, and 10 makes for a ton of value.
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Cincinnati -4.5 (6-point tease from -10.5) over Houston
Houston goes into the American Athletic Conference Championship riding an 11-game winning streak and hasn’t lost since its first game of the season. Cincinnati is undefeated and even has a win over Notre Dame. Both teams are excellent on defense and respectable on offense. Cincinnati averages 39.6 points and allows 15.8 points per game, and it has really been crushing opponents of late. The Bearcats were expected by many to be challenged by SMU and ECU in their last 2 games and they covered the spreads on both occasions. If a formidable foe like Houston does manage to be competitive, a tease through the key numbers of 10, 7, and 6 all the way down to a -4.5 spread should make for a winner.
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Michigan -4.5 (6-point tease from -10.5) over Iowa
Like Cincinnati, Michigan is also a -10.5 favorite. The Wolverines are expected to roll over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship after dominating Ohio State 42-27 last weekend. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s squad should be able to take care of business and punch its ticket to the CFP; after all, it is a far more talented team than Iowa. The Hawkeyes peaked at No. 2 in the nation earlier in the season but then pretty much fell off the map. There is a chance the underdogs could make this somewhat competitive with UM in a letdown spot and facing the pressure of a win-and-in, lose-and-out situation. As such, another -10.5 to -4.5 tease through a bunch of key numbers could be a worthwhile endeavor.
Check out all of our college football picks for Week 14
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