Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s possible that no program benefited more from the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State, a team that was never quite able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Now, the Nittany Lions not only get a shot at a National Championship this season, they get to start off their quest for a title at home in front of over 100,000 screaming fans in a “White Out” environment. This is undoubtedly a massive chance for James Franklin and this Penn State program to put together a strong showing on a national stage, while the SMU Mustangs are looking to play spoiler in Happy Valley. This is sure to be an excellent contest in what is an absolutely loaded slate of football on Saturday. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Let’s get into our SMU vs Penn State Same Game Parlay picks, which will be televised starting at 12:00 pm ET on TNT. You can also find out our college football picks for EVERY playoff game this weekend.
Penn State -8 (+245)
Under 54.5 (-110)
Harrison Wallace over 2.5 receptions (-140)
SMU vs Penn State Same Game Parlay odds: +524
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Penn State Nittany Lions -8 over SMU Mustangs (+245)
All odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
While I’m of the opinion that SMU was probably better than how it looked against Clemson, that doesn’t help Rhett Lashlee’s team now, as they’ll have their hands full with a rested and hungry Penn State side in hostile territory. One of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks 2nd nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in 3rd down success rate. Therefore, even though SMU’s defense has actually become the strength of the team, it’s hard to see the Mustangs shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense has been very efficient and effective in ACC play, despite getting off to a disappointing start to the nonconference portion of its schedule and needing to figure things out on the fly. With that being said, this is by far the best defense that the Mustangs will have faced to this point, and the likes of Abdul Carter and the Penn State pass rush should give this offensive line fits, especially since SMU’s line has really struggled in pass protection this season.
This is a game that should be close for at least a half, but it’s easy to see things unraveling a bit for SMU on both sides of the ball as the game goes along. Franklin’s teams have done very well over the years in this exact type of situation (favored by 7+ points at home), and I anticipate that we’ll get a similar result here. Penn State should be prepared to win the war of attrition, so let’s back the Nittany Lions to protect their home field and win this game by margin.
Read our full SMU vs Penn State prediction for this College Football Playoff game
Under 54.5 (-110)
As of now, temperatures are expected to be in the mid-20s on Saturday, with wind gusts between 10-15 miles per hour and a chance of some light snow showers as well. That forecast indicates that we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of running on early downs from both sides, which should be a particular point of emphasis from the Penn State team (6th in EPA per rush, 12th in rushing success rate). After all, the Nittany Lions are likely going to prioritize establishing their dominance at the line of scrimmage, especially on defense, where they are a top-10 unit against the run this season. That is an ideal script for this under getting home, especially if the Nittany Lions end up maintaining a lead into the second half, where they’ll likely just try to run the ball, chew up as much clock as possible and grind out a comfortable victory.
There’s also something to be said for the fact that this is an unfamiliar situation for both teams, being that it is the first playoff game either side will be competing in. While Penn State has played in big games over the last few seasons, the Nittany Lions weren’t necessarily expected to win those games, even if they were at Beaver Stadium. On the other hand, SMU certainly wasn’t expected to be here at the start of the season, and there’s no telling how Rhett Lashlee’s team will handle a game of this magnitude. Quick-scoring drives are unlikely to be had on Saturday, so let’s back the under in what should be a lower-scoring affair than what this total is projecting.
Don’t miss our expert’s college football best bets for Saturday’s playoff games
Harrison Wallace over 2.5 receptions (-140)
While the Penn State ground game is typically the focus of this offense, the Nittany Lions should get more avenues to move the ball through the air on Saturday. SMU’s front seven is the strength of its defense, and establishing the run could be more difficult than anticipated for Penn State, particularly early on. However, the Mustangs’ pass defense will likely be focusing on limiting the productivity of all-world tight end Tyler Warren in the passing game. Therefore, that should leave the Penn State wide receivers on islands with the SMU corners, a matchup that could favor the Nittany Lions. Allar has already shown to have a connection with Harrison Wallace, and the top Penn State wideout should look to build on a solid game against Oregon with at least 3 more receptions on Saturday.
