Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s been a long and eventful college football season, and now the best time of the year on the calendar has finally arrived. After Championship Weekend produced more chaos earlier this month, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field was announced on December 8, there’s a little something for everyone in this weekend’s quartet of games. Saturday brings us a loaded slate of football, beginning with SMU vs Penn State and concluding with Tennessee vs Ohio State under the lights. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s slate of bowl games with my college football best bets column. I’m on an 13-4 best bets run and bowl season has been kind to me in the past, so let’s keep that momentum going this year! Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for Saturday’s playoff games.
Penn State Nittany Lions -8 over SMU Mustangs (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.
Perhaps no team benefited more from the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State, a program that has consistently finished inside the top 10 of the polls over the last 8 seasons, but never was able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Now, the Nittany Lions not only get a shot at a National Championship this season, they get to start off their quest for a title at home in front of over 100,000 screaming fans in a “White Out” environment. This is undoubtedly a massive chance for Franklin and this Penn State program to put together a strong showing on a national stage, and I fully believe that the Nittany Lions will take full advantage of that opportunity.
It was just a few weeks ago that we saw SMU claw its way back to nearly steal the ACC title from Clemson. And while I’m of the opinion that the Mustangs were probably the better team in that contest, that doesn’t help Rhett Lashlee’s group now, as they’ll have their hands full with a rested and hungry Penn State side in hostile territory. The problem for the Mustangs is that unlike the ACC title game, this game is one that should feature much less chaos and variance, which is typically what underdogs need to pull off an upset on the road in a big game. In fact, one of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks 2nd nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in 3rd down success rate. Therefore, even though SMU’s defense has actually become the strength of the team, it’s hard to see the Mustangs shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense has been very efficient and effective in ACC play, despite getting off to a disappointing start to the nonconference portion of its schedule and needing to figure things out on the fly. With that being said, this is by far the best defense that the Mustangs will have faced to this point, and the likes of Abdul Carter and the Penn State pass rush should give this offensive line fits, especially because SMU’s line has really struggled in pass protection this season.
This is a game that should be close for at least a half, but it’s easy to see things unraveling a bit for SMU on both sides of the ball as the game goes along. Franklin’s teams have done very well over the years in this exact type of situation (favored by 7+ points at home), and I anticipate that we’ll get a similar result here. Penn State should be prepared to win the war of attrition, so let’s back the Nittany Lions to protect their home field and win this game by margin.
Read our full SMU vs Penn State prediction
Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Tennessee +7.
In what is arguably the most fascinating game of the weekend, the outcome in Columbus on Saturday night could come down to external factors that aren’t even on the field. It’s hard to gauge where Ohio State is at mentally heading into this game. After all, the Buckeyes have been widely touted as being the most talented roster in the nation all season long, only to somehow lose to Michigan for the fourth consecutive season in humiliating fashion, this time as nearly 3-touchdown favorites at home. Ohio State registered only 252 yards of offense and was held to just 10 points in that game, which was their worst offensive performance since a loss to Clemson in the 2016 CFP semifinal. Now, they’ll welcome in a Tennessee team that not only is a difficult matchup for Ohio State stylistically, but the Volunteers are a group that is truly playing with nothing to lose in a game where all of the focus will be on the home team. There is an immense amount of pressure on Ryan Day and the Buckeyes to perform in front of their home fans in primetime on Saturday, and things could start to sour for the Buckeyes within a potentially hostile home stadium if they don’t get out to a quick start.
Even discounting all of the issues and negativity surrounding this Ohio State program at the moment, Tennessee has the capability to keep this one close, if not pull off the outright upset. Josh Heupel is an excellent coach with multiple weeks to prepare, so I’d expect the Volunteers to come out with a great script and start strong against a defense that is stout up front, but can be had in the downfield passing game. Even though the Vols are a run-first team — led by outstanding running back Dylan Sampson — Tennessee should be able to find success through the air (12th in passing success rate), provided that quarterback Nico Iamaleava is given time to throw. Heupel’s offense should also be able to generate some success in key short-yardage situations against a Buckeyes front that is 124th in stuff rate and just struggled mightily with slowing down Michigan’s ground game a few weeks ago. The Vols offensive line is strong and Sampson is tremendous after contact, so he could very well break off an explosive run early in this game to quiet the crowd.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State is going to be without its 2 best starters on the offensive line, which means that Will Howard could be running for his life against the likes of James Pearce Jr. and a fierce Tennessee defensive line that is 1st nationally in success rate, 1st in opponent EPA per rush and 2nd in net points per drive (College Football Insiders). Howard has also been very poor when under pressure this season, registering just 1 big-time throw to a whopping 6 turnover-worthy plays in a pressured pocket. If Tennessee is able to get after the senior quarterback consistently, it could be a long night for the Buckeyes passing offense. If Ohio State is unable to spring a couple of explosive plays in the passing game, points could be hard to come by. Given that the total implies that we should be getting a fairly low-scoring game on Saturday, I’ll take over a touchdown with the underdog Vols on the road.
Don’t miss our expert’s Tennessee vs Ohio State Same Game Parlay (+450 odds!)
