Matt Wiesenfeld
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If you are a college football fan, you know this season will look very different. No, Middle Tennessee is not suddenly a national title contender, but the expanded College Football Playoffs will open things up for programs in that second tier of the sport — like a Penn State (sorry PSU, it’s true). Instead of the 4-team format we have “accepted” for the past decade, the new format will have 12 teams, primarily meaning that a single loss does not doom your favorite team’s season before it gets to Halloween on the calendar.
I do not want to bore you with all of the mechanics, but the expanded field even creates room for a single Group of 5 team, so the Cinderella stories that are usually reserved for March Madness might be coming to your living room in a not-too-distant future January. Let’s take a look at the latest college football odds for teams to reach the College Football Playoff, along with our NCAAF picks and best bets.
Don’t miss our NCAAF National Championship best bets for the upcoming season, including a +6500 longshot!
College Football Playoff Odds
Just making the playoffs is going to be pretty easy, and consistent, for the top teams in the sport — think Georgia and Ohio State. That is just the way it is and the rich are getting richer in so many ways. Below are the College Football Playoff Odds to make the 12-team field this season (top 12). You have to go to at least the middle of this list before you start finding reasonable odds.
Odds courtesy of Bet365 and available at the time of publishing.
- Ohio State Buckeyes -650
- Georgia Bulldogs -600
- Oregon Ducks -300
- Texas Longhorns -230
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish-160
- Penn State Nittany Lions -140
- Ole Miss Rebels -130
- Alabama Crimson Tide -110
- LSU Tigers +120
- Michigan Wolverines +140
- Florida State Semnoles +140
- Tennessee Volunteers +170
That is the top 12, by odds, and there is a significant Power Four smell to that group. In my opinion, making a bet like this and not at least doubling your money makes no sense. You are going to have to tie up your capital for the next 3+ months so the return has to be worth it, right?
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To reach the College Football Playoff best bet: Florida State (+140)
My best bet to reach the College Football Playoff is Florida State. The ACC is guaranteed a spot in the new format and right now they are the favorite to take the conference. After dominating last season and recruiting DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback, I have high expectations that FSU will right the injustice of last season and make it to the playoff. If anything, the way things ended last year only helps to create a buying opportunity.
To reach the College Football Playoff longshot pick: Miami Hurricanes (+220)
I am not sure Miami is “back” but the expanded playoffs should definitely help them out a lot. Also helping will be a big-time quarterback in Cam Ward. Sure, he has transferred twice, but he is an NFL prospect and that gives the Hurricanes a chance in games where making one more play, or avoiding one big mistake, can make all of the difference. Assuming Miami hits the ground running, they can win double-digit games and make the College Football Playoff, even if they don’t win the ACC.
Want more college football futures picks? Check out our NCAAF futures betting guide for EVERY Pickswise prediction for the 2024 CFB season
Group of 5 longshot picks to reach the College Football Playoff
First off, it’s well worth remembering that there will be at least one Group of 5 team in the College Football playoff, which immediately gives value to the odds of those teams. Below are 2 college football picks I have to reach the playoff at very enticing odds.
Liberty Flames (+400)
The Flames have no margin for error, that is for sure. Lucky for them, playing in Conference USA is a joke this season. They are heavily favored to win the conference at -195 odds, and their only projected loss is at the Sun Belt’s best team, Appalachian State. If they are able to win that game, then this pick could already be very close to cashing even before the end of September. and this one could be close to cashing before the end of September.
South Florida Bulls (+1500)
For a while, the AAC was considered the best Group of 5 Conference. I am not sure that is the case anymore, but USF has to be excited about where the program is at. Head coach Alex Golesh supercharged the offense last year and with a trip to Miami (above), they have a chance to make a splash. They play at Alabama too, a game that was closer than expected last season, and that was with Nick Saban still roaming the sidelines for the Crimson Tide. The Bulls could lose both of those games and still be the best Group of 5 program. Their margin is greater and the payoff is awesome, so I believe it’s well worth sprinkling a little on South Florida to defy expectations at huge +1500 odds.
Now read our expert’s CFB Win Total best bets, targeting Georgia, Colorado and more
