Caleb Wilfinger
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Championship Week is finally here, and with it comes a massive game in the Big Ten, as the Oregon Ducks will take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the conference title game on Saturday from Lucas Oil Stadium. Penn State didn’t expect to be in this position, but the Nittany Lions were able to sneak into this game by default following Ohio State’s stunning loss to Michigan a week ago. As for Oregon, the Ducks went undefeated in the regular season and are looking to become one of just two programs in college football history to beat Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State in the same campaign. This is sure to be an excellent contest and should be one of the best games of the weekend in what is an absolutely loaded slate of football. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Let’s get into our Oregon vs Penn State Same Game Parlay picks, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on CBS. You can also find out our college football picks for EVERY championship game this weekend.
Oregon -3 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-110)
Tez Johnson anytime touchdown scorer (+110)
Penn State vs Oregon Same Game Parlay odds: +634
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Oregon -3 (-115)
All odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Much has been made of James Franklin’s struggles against elite competition during his tenure at Penn State and that narrative may well continue following this Big Ten championship game. In fact, Penn State hasn’t won a game outright as an underdog since September 2021 against Wisconsin, and Franklin is just 1-16 straight up and 5-12 against the number when facing top-5 teams in his career. And while this Penn State roster and coaching staff make up one of the strongest teams this program has had in years, this is still the best opponent it will have faced all season, and it comes in a high-pressure spot to boot.
Oregon used its bye week to get healthy after a whopping 8 straight Big 10 conference games, and a 49-point outburst against Washington at home was just what this team needed last week. Led by veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks’ offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, as Oregon is averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big 10 and sitting inside the top five in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate this season. After missing a couple of weeks with an injury, the return of top wide receiver Tez Johnson is massive for this Oregon offense, as the Ducks averaged over 3 points per drive with Johnson in the lineup over the first 9 games this season. Without Johnson on the field against Maryland and Wisconsin, the Ducks offense only averaged 2.09 points per drive, with an explosive pass plate rate of just 9.2% (compared to 19.2% with Johnson in the lineup).
As for Penn State, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd down success rate. However, we saw the Nittany Lions struggle mightily against Ohio State’s defense earlier this season, and this Oregon defense ranks inside the top 5 in EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, so this game will be a stern test for Drew Allar and the much-maligned Penn State receiving corps. Ultimately, Oregon has the better offense and I trust the Ducks’ defense to get off the field when it matters most. After all, this is a unit that played a huge role in the game against Ohio State back in October, and they’ll step up once again on the big stage to claim the Big 10 Championship in Oregon’s inaugural season in the conference.
Read our full Penn State vs Oregon prediction for the Big Ten Championship game
Under 50.5 (-110)
While an over game script would traditionally go hand-in-hand with an Oregon cover in this spot, I’m of the opinion that we’ll see a bit less scoring than usual in Indianapolis. As I mentioned in the writeup for the first leg, the Oregon defense is actually the strongest unit on the field for both teams, particularly on the defensive line. In fact, Dan Lanning’s defense is ranked 8th in the nation in pressure to blitz rate, which should help the Ducks consistently devote more attention to slowing down Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, while the likes of Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch get after the passer.
Penn State’s offense had major issues in the red zone against Ohio State and the Ducks are also 10th in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of drives from the Nittany Lions to stall in the red zone in this one. The Ducks have also experienced red zone issues against the best defenses they’ve faced this season and Penn State’s top-10 unit certainly fits that bill, so we could see plenty of points left on the board on Saturday. There is a real possibility that Oregon both wins and covers the short number in this game while still going under the total, and that is the only way I can look in this matchup.
Don’t miss our expert’s college football best bets for Saturday’s championship games
Tez Johnson anytime touchdown scorer (+110)
For our final pick in this Big Ten title game SGP, let’s go with Tez Johnson to find the end zone for a 10th time this season. Despite missing a few games due to injury, Oregon’s top wide receiver has 67 receptions on the season and he should follow up on his solid game against Washington with another excellent effort in a big spot. Johnson has recorded 70+ receiving yards in 11 of his last 15 completed games and found the end zone 15 times in 17 regular-season games in 2023. While Johnson is going to draw plenty of attention on Saturday, he still has a great shot of finding the end zone in this one, especially since this is a matchup where Johnson should draw double-digit targets, particularly if Oregon is in a negative game script. Let’s back the all-Big Ten wideout to get the job done.
