Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 3 of the college football season isn’t the most compelling on paper, but this Big Ten clash between Penn State and Illinois is one that could be a tricky spot for the Nittany Lions with a massive game against Iowa on deck next week. Both teams are trending in different directions, with Illinois having just been handled by Kansas last week while Penn State appears to be a serious contender for the College Football Playoff. This contest kicks off at 12:00 pm ET and will be televised on FOX.
But before we get started, be sure to check out all of our NCAAF content for Week 3. Let’s get into our same game parlay for one of the bigger Power 5 games on this weekend’s slate.
Penn State -14.5 (-115)
Over 48.6 (-110)
KeAndre Lambert-Smith over 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +560
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Penn State Nittany Lions -14.5 (-115)
Through their first 2 games this season, the Nittany Lions have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 101-22 and are 2-0 against the number in those contests. On the other side, Illinois is 0-2 ATS and the Fighting Illini are frankly a last second field goal away from being 0-2 straight up as well. The Illini looked overmatched last week in their road defeat at Kansas, as the Jayhawks out-gained them by a massive 539-341 margin, averaged 6 yards per rush attempt and were 9-for-13 on their third-down conversions. The Illini were outgained at home in Week 1 against Toledo as well, as it’s clear that this is not the same defense as the elite unit from a season ago. The loss of former defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, as well as a plethora of NFL talent has clearly left a void in Champaign.
Conversely, the first few weeks couldn’t have gone any better for Penn State. The Nittany Lions had just 2 drives that failed to score a touchdown or gain 30 yards against West Virginia and just 1 in the first half against Delaware last week before the reserves started to rotate in. So while this is a good spot for Illinois situationally, I can’t get there with the Illini considering that Penn State’s offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage and Drew Allar should pass with ease against the unproven Illini secondary. Given the talent disparity here, it’s hard not to take the favorite.
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Over 48.5 (-110)
Every Penn State road game hit the over last season and I do not expect much to change on Saturday. As I mentioned previously, this Illinois defense has regressed significantly following last season’s excellent performance. The Illini are outside the top 100 in points per drive allowed per BCFToys, which also ranks outside the top 100 nationally. Furthermore, the Illini defense has yielded at least 30 yards or a touchdown on over 75% of opposing drives and have surrendered 7 touchdowns in 10 opposing red-zone trips this season. Given Illinois’ defense woes, Penn State should be able to punch in several touchdowns, and while the Nittany Lions’ defense is stout, I can see the Illini mustering up 13-17 points to get us over the total.
Check out our full Penn State vs Illinois predictions
KeAndre Lambert-Smith over 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
I still have some questions about the Penn State wide receivers, and this could be a storyline to monitor as the Nittany Lions push for the College Football Playoff. However, one wideout that has established an immediate connection with Allar has been KeAndre Lambert-Smith. The redshirt junior has plenty of experience and is finally getting his chance to shine in a starring role, and he’s making the most of it. Over the first 2 games, Lambert-Smith has 10 catches for a whopping 190 yards and a pair of touchdowns. I expect him to get at least 8-10 targets against this poor Illinois secondary, so I’ll gladly take over 50.5 receiving yards to complete our SGP.
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