Sam Avellone
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Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve nightcap will take place between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl and is the first of 4 College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups over the next couple of days. Penn State’s offense showed some firepower against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, and Boise’s offense is led by Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty – so this should make for quite the matchup at 7:30 pm ET tonight. With so much intrigue surrounding these College Football Playoff matchups, we are going to have a Same Game Parlay on every quarterfinal game starting with this one. Let’s get to our Penn State vs Boise State Same Game Parlay picks, and make sure you continue checking Pickswise daily for college football predictions on all the remaining bowl and playoff games, with our experts 23-9 on their CFB postseason picks!
Drew Allar (PSU) 225+ passing yards (-115)
Ashton Jeanty (BSU) under 129.5 rushing yards (-115)
Tyler Warren (PSU) anytime touchdown scorer (-188)
Penn State vs Boise State Same Game Parlay odds: +375
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing. Bet365 is also offering a profit boost token for this game that increases the odds by 30%.
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Drew Allar (PSU) 225+ passing yards (-115)
Playing in the Mountain West Conference, Boise State’s defense has not been tested by many quarterbacks that have the passing ability Penn State’s Drew Allar possesses, yet the Broncos still left quite a bit to be desired against the pass this season. Despite the 84th-rated strength of schedule, the Broncos are 109th in pass defense – yielding 246.8 yards per game through the air. They were shredded for at least 320 yards on 4 separate occasions against Georgia Southern, Washington State, Utah State and San Jose State, and they allowed Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel to complete 18 of 21 passes for 243 yards in Week 2.
Penn State is not exactly a pass-happy offense, but Allar has all of the tools to be successful in this matchup. He has surpassed this number in 6 games and continues to look comfortable in Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. In fact, PFF grades him as 1 of the 20 best passers in the country, as he is top 5 nationally in turnover-worthy play rate. He is also 6th nationally in completion percentage on passes of at least 20 yards, which is not ideal for a Boise State defense that is 116th in explosive passes allowed.
Read our full Penn State vs Boise State prediction for the Fiesta Bowl
Ashton Jeanty (BSU) under 129.5 rushing yards (-115)
It seems insane to take the Under on Ashton Jeanty’s rushing prop, but Penn State’s defense is a major step up in class for Jeanty and the Boise State offense. The Nittany Lions are 7th nationally in run defense – allowing only 100.36 rushing yards per game – and they are 13th in PPA per rush allowed outside of garbage time. They also don’t give up very many big plays on the ground, as opponents average only 3.5 runs of at least 10 yards per game against them. I fully expect PSU’s entire defensive game plan to center around stopping Jeanty, and oddsmakers seem to think the Nittany Lions will have success doing so given this relatively low number on his rushing prop.
Jeanty has failed to surpass this number just twice this season, and one of those times was against an FCS team in a game that he did not play in its entirety. I will say, missed tackles could be an issue for Penn State considering Jeanty forces more of them than anyone else in the country by a wide margin. However, the Nittany Lions have gotten better in that department in recent weeks, specifically linebacker Kobe King and safety Jaylen Reed – Penn State’s 2 leading tacklers that have just 2 missed tackles combined in their last 4 games.
Find out our expert college football best bets across today’s big matchups, including Alabama vs Michigan and Baylor vs LSU
Tyler Warren (PSU) anytime touchdown (-188)
Tyler Warren is 1 of 4 tight ends in FBS that leads his team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, so figures to be heavily involved in this game. He has 10 total touchdowns this season – 6 as a receiver and 4 as a runner – but he didn’t score in either the Big Ten Championship or the first round of the playoff against SMU. In ideal scoring conditions indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Warren should have plenty of opportunities to find pay dirt against a Boise State defense that has given up 37 total offensive touchdowns.
Want more SGPs? Check out our South Carolina vs Illinois Same Game Parlay picks for the Citrus Bowl
