Ricky Dimon
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The first of the Power 5 conference championship games kicks off on Friday night when the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies battle for the Pac-12 title. This is a rematch of an October 14 showdown at Washington, where the Huskies treated their home crowd to a thrilling 36-33 victory. However, that result doesn’t really matter now. Whoever wins this one will be heading to the College Football Playoff, while the loser will almost certainly be out.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the Pac-12 Championship, which is set for 8:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Oregon vs Washington predictions.
Washington +7.5 alternate spread (+104)
Michael Penix Jr. over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+148)
Bucky Irving over 90.5 rushing yards (-114)
Bucky Irving to score a touchdown (-260)
Parlay odds: +783
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throwing a whole bunch of touchdown passes would obviously work well with a cover by the Huskies. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Oregon RB Bucky Irving to have a big day on the ground. But even if that happens, there is no reason why Washington can’t keep it close. Let’s break down each of the legs.
Washington +7.5 alternate spread (+104)
The final installment of the Pac-12 Championship is a rematch of what was without question one of the best games of the regular season. Washington picked up the win at home and has since remained undefeated. Victories in November came at the expense of USC, Oregon State, Utah and Washington State. It is true that the Huskies have been far from dominant of late, but they have no need to apologize for going undefeated in the Pac-12. Combine that with Oregon blowing out teams left and right and you get a spread of close to 10 points in favor of the Ducks. However, I’m willing to play the number down because I think the Huskies can keep it within a touchdown – if not even win outright.
Michael Penix Jr. over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+148)
Michael Penix Jr. has reportedly dealt with both an injury and the flu in recent weeks, but in 4 November games he threw 8 touchdown passes compared to just 2 interceptions and also rushed for 3 scores. If he is closer to 100% physically on Friday, the Heisman Trophy contender should be in line to put up huge numbers. Penix has an elite group of wide receivers at his disposal and they will likely victimize an Oregon defense that is 121st nationally in explosiveness allowed over the last month. In the first meeting between these teams the Huskies generated plays of at least 20 yards on every one of their touchdown drives. Penix threw for 302 yards and 4 touchdowns. Asking him to toss at least 3 TDs in this one should not be too much.
Bucky Irving over 90.5 rushing yards (-114)
Not unlike the first contest, this has also the makings of a shootout. As such, I have no reservations about backing Oregon to rack up plenty of yards and points despite also fading them when it comes to the point spread. Don’t be surprised if Bucky Irving is the Duck who has the biggest day. In the regular-season loss to Washington, Irving rushed 22 times for 127 yards and 1 touchdown (he also caught 6 passes for 34 yards). Since then he has twice amassed at least 118 yards on the ground and has run for at least 83 yards on 2 other occasions. The Huskies are giving up 134.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per attempt, so I can’t see them doing much to contain Irving.
Bucky Irving to score a touchdown (-260)
Irving has rushed for 10 touchdowns this season and has scored 12 times in total. He has failed to deliver a TD in just 3 games; 2 of those came in the first 4 weeks of the 2023 campaign. The junior from Chicago has 9 touchdowns in the last 8 contests. Even at -260 odds, betting on Irving to find the end zone has good value.
Check out our expert’s NCAAF Best Bets for this week
