Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
We’re in for what should be an instant classic this week when the Oregon Ducks head to Seattle for a date with the Washington Huskies. There are Pac-12 and College Football Playoff implications on the line, as the winner will have the inside track on both fronts. This is a spot where the underdog is certainly barking in a rivalry game, but I’m more inclined to back the favorite in this contest.
Here is my Oregon vs Washington Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 3:30 pm ET on ABC. Also, be sure to check out our full Oregon vs Washington predictions.
Washington -3 (-110)
Over 66 (-110)
Ja’Lynn Polk to record a touchdown (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +595
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Washington win and cover can correlate with the over, and I believe it also correlates with Ja’Lynn Polk scoring a touchdown.
Washington Huskies -3 over Oregon Ducks (-110)
I’ve already written about this game xtensively this week, but as I’ve said before, there’s isn’t much wrong you can say about this Oregon offense. Bo Nix and the Ducks are sitting 1st in EPA per rush, rush success rate, 3rd in passing success rate and 1st in net points per drive (CFB-Graphs). Nix has a plethora of weapons at his disposal and this Oregon offensive line should see success against a Washington front that has struggled to defend the rush. With that said, the Ducks needed 3 interceptions from Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shough to win their only true road game against competent opponent (Texas Tech) this season, a fortunate twist of turnover luck that they certainly shouldn’t get against Michael Penix Jr. and the best passing offense in the nation.
On the other side, we know how good the Washington offense is. After all, the Huskies are either 1st, 2nd or somewhere else in the top 5 in pretty much any metric. That goes for passing success rate (1st), EPA per pass (2nd), early downs EPA (1st), offensive success rate (1st) and net points per drive (3rd) per CFB-Graphs. The combination of Penix Jr. and Kalen DeBoer has been a match made in heaven, as DeBoer’s innovative offense has meshed perfectly with Penix’s ability to make any throw on the field. Then there’s the matter of the wide receiving room, which could be the best in the nation. Between Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, there is NFL-level talent all over the field — which should stretch an Oregon secondary that previously allowed 11.75 yards per reception against Texas Tech. We should be in for an excellent game, but I’m confident ing fading road Bo Nix in this one.
Over 66 (-110)
This line has been getting steamed down in the market, but I still can’t get there with an under play. Last season, I backed the over between these 2 teams at Autzen Stadium and we still nearly managed to get there despite each team having 2 turnovers in opposing territory, with 2 of those 4 turnovers coming inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Yet, that game still finished 37-34 for a total of 71 points. A year later and these offenses are much more efficient than they were last fall, with both quarterbacks playing the best football of their careers. I expect some quick-strike scoring and explosive plays early on from both teams and even after the game settles down, the more methodical drives for both sides should result in touchdowns, not field goals. Each coach will be incentivized to get 7 every chance they can get, knowing that the other side has tremendous firepower.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Ja’Lynn Polk to score a touchdown (-110)
There will undoubtedly be a ton of attention on McMillan and Odunze this week as the top 2 Washington wideouts should be a full go for this high-stakes matchup. However, this leaves Polk as the receiver who is most likely to receive the least amount of attention between these 3 NFL level talents. Polk has impressed this season, racking up 100 or more yards in 4 of Washington’s 5 games this season, while also recording 4 touchdowns over the first 5 contests. With so much attention and focus devoted to slowing down McMillan and Odunze, Polk should be in good position to find the end zone at least once on Saturday. There’s a reason why this prop isn’t plus-money after all, but it provides us with plenty of value as a 3rd leg of our parlay.
