Caleb Wilfinger
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We’re in for what should be a terrific game out west when the Oregon Ducks head to Salt Lake City for a date with the Utah Utes. There are Pac-12 and College Football Playoff implications on the line, as the winner will have the inside track on both fronts. This is a spot where the underdog is certainly barking in a rivalry game, and I’m leaning in that direction as well.
Here is my Oregon vs Utah Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 3:30 pm ET on FOX. Also, be sure to check out our full Oregon vs Utah predictions.
Utah +6.5 (-110)
Under 47.5 (-110)
Troy Franklin over 75.5 yards (-115)
Same Game Parlay odds: +600
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can juice the odds up by not correlating the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Utah cover can correlate with the under, but doesn’t correlate with Troy Franklin going over his receiving numbers.
Utah Utes +6.5 over Oregon Ducks (-110)
For all the talk of Bo Nix being a Heisman Trophy contender, this Oregon team runs the ball a lot more than you think it does. Their passing game, for the most part, is based around short, high percentage throws. They move the ball methodically more than they do explosively, and this Utah defense is capable of putting the Ducks behind the chains and in tough situations. Utah, on the other hand, is known for their defense, but they have also been written off most of the year because of the absence of Cam Rising. The truth is that at this point, Bryson Barnes is now an experienced quarterback who cannot be ignored. He is capable of keeping the Utes in this game. I expect this game to be a 3-point game one way or another, and the Utes playing at home with a dominant defense should have every opportunity to keep this game within the spread.
Under 47.5 (-110)
This game total has dropped 4 points already, and I would not be surprised if it drops further before Saturday. We have several game conditions that are ripe for a low-scoring struggle. There are two major factors in particular. First, both of these teams have outstanding defenses, and they are willing to lean on those defenses to win games. Second, both teams are run-heavy, and among the slower teams in the country in terms of pace. It is perfectly possible, indeed likely, that these teams will run the ball a lot, even though they are running into a stone wall of a defense. The public betting expectation seems to be that the Ducks will score a ton, given the efficiency of their offense. I would not be surprised to see this game turn into a field position battle, and I’m leaning toward a 24-20 final score in this one.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Troy Franklin over 75.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Ducks are more of a run-first team than an elite passing offense, but that doesn’t mean that Nix and company can’t throw the ball around the yard. I’m also expecting a bit of regression in this Utah pass defense, that while excellent, has suffered some key injuries that USC’s passing offense was able to exploit as the game went on last week. This Oregon passing attack is a lot more efficient and also has a certified top-end talent at wide receiver in Troy Franklin, who has cleared this number in every game of the season to this point. Franklin has also shone in the biggest moments, racking up a combined 16 catches for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns in massive games against Washington and Colorado. Why not back him to clear this prop once again? There’s a reason why this prop isn’t plus-money after all, but it provides us with plenty of value as a 3rd leg of our parlay.
