Caleb Wilfinger
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Year in and year out, the Egg Bowl is one of the most entertaining games on the college football calendar. This is a game that traditionally kicks off rivalry week on Thanksgiving night each season, and I’m expecting another eventful installment in one of the most storied rivalries in the country. Will Ole Miss roll over their in-state counterparts, or is the home underdog barking under the lights? Let’s get into it.
Here is my Egg Bowl Same Game Parlay for Thursday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. Also, be sure to check out our full Ole Miss vs Mississippi State predictions.
Ole Miss alt. spread -12.5 (+120)
Under 55.5 (-110)
Quinshon Judkins to record a touchdown (-250)
Same Game Parlay odds: +488
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Ole Miss decisive victory certainly correlates with Quinshon Judkins recording a touchdown and probably correlates with teh under as well.
Ole Miss alternate spread -12.5 (+120)
When I look at this matchup, it’s hard not to immediately take the favorite, especially since the number has come down. This Mississippi State team is one that I’ve been looking to fade since Week 1 and the Bulldogs are having an extremely poor season in the first year without Mike Leach at the helm of the program. Will Rodgers has regressed mightily in this new system and he’ll be going up against a Rebels defense that while not great, has still shown flashes against inferior competition and is no stranger to forcing turnovers as well.
The only win Mississippi State recorded in conference play was a 7-3 victory over a terrible Arkansas team that had no offense whatsoever. That won’t be the case against an Ole Miss team that is looking to finish 10-2 on the year and remain in the running for a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Bulldogs defense is one of the worst in the nation in finishing drives and I don’t expect that to change against an Ole Miss offense that is inside the top 20 in most essential passing and rushing categories. I’ve gone with an alternate spread to add a bit of value to this parlay. Hotty Toddy!
Under 55.5 (-110)
As my colleague alluded to, there have been 55 or fewer points in 5 straight Egg Bowls. It’s hard not to see that under trend is going to continue in this standalone Thanksgiving game. For starters, these defenses have been fairly good since Week 7. Mississippi State is 21st in defensive PPA, 22nd in success rate allowed and 54th in explosiveness in that time, while Ole Miss is 45th, 61st and 45th in those metrics, respectively.
Both defensive units are also in the top 50 in scoring opportunities allowed in the last 6 weeks, which means there could be a few more punts than there usually are in Ole Miss contests. For what it’s worth, Mississippi State is still playing for bowl eligibility. Expect the Bulldogs to do what they can to control the pace of the game and limit the Rebels’ possessions, even if they get down early on.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Quinshon Judkins to record a touchdown (-250)
Quinshon Judkins is the straw that stirs the drink for this Ole Miss offense, and he typically finds a way to get into the end zone, even when the offense isn’t having a ton of success. I’ve already gone over why I think Ole Miss is going to win and cover this double-digit number, and Judkins will surely be involved in scoring plays throughout this game.
Even at a -250 price, I still think we’re getting a bit of value on the top Ole Miss running back to find the end zone, especially considering that he has a touchdown in all but one game this season, including 7 TDs in the last 4 games.
Check out all the Week 13 NCAAF odds and lines
