Caleb Wilfinger
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We might have a clear mismatch on our hands at AT&T Stadium this weekend when the Texas Longhorns go up against an Oklahoma State team that has managed to make it to the Big 12 title game while picking up a couple of terrible non-conference losses. Will the Cowboys pull another shocker or can Texas give itself a great chance of making the College Football Playoff? Let’s get into it.
Here is my Oklahoma State vs Texas Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 12:00 pm ET on ABC. Also, be sure to check out our full Texas vs Oklahoma State predictions.
Texas -14.5 (-110)
Under 55 (-110)
Alan Bowman to throw an interception (-215)
Same Game Parlay odds: +434
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Texas covering the spread and the game going under correlates with an off day from Alan Bowman.
Texas Longhorns -14.5 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys (-110)
This Oklahoma State team has defied all odds to this point. The Cowboys dropped just a single game in conference play, but this team was certainly fortunate in wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State and most recently BYU — a trend that doesn’t bode well against a Texas side that is rounding into championship form since the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers 2 weeks ago.
While Texas tends to leave points in the red zone every week and that has been a source of frustration for fans, the Longhorns should have more than enough success against Oklahoma State’s defense that is 107th in EPA per pass and 106th in early downs EPA this season. We can expect that the Longhorns will be able to use their talent advantage to score when given the opportunity. There’s also the matter of this Texas side having the clear talent edge and the clear motivation factor in this one, as well. With Texas playing early on Saturday, I expect head coach Steve Sarkisian’s group to be motivated to win convincingly so they are not left out of the College Football Playoff if Florida State goes down later that night. Let’s lay it with the Longhorns.
Under 55 (-110)
Despite the fact that these are 2 of the 4 highest-scoring offenses in the Big 12, I lean to the under in this matchup. The Longhorns should have success limiting the Cowboy offense, forcing them into obvious passing situations with a stout run defense that figures to keep star running back Ollie Gordon bottled up. Texas should also be able to limit Oklahoma State’s scoring opportunities, as the Longhorns rank 16th in defensive success rate and 28th in PPA per play. Texas should score enough to cover the spread, but I also expect a deliberate game plan from head Sarkisian that focuses on ball security and control. Quinn Ewers has a relatively low ADOT, so I do not expect too many down field passes despite Oklahoma State’s propensity to give up explosive plays. Overall, I can’t see the Cowboys scoring much at all and it’s hard to trust Texas in the red zone.
Check out all of our expert’s Week 14 NCAAF best bets
Alan Bowman to throw an interception (-215)
The biggest advantage the Longhorns hold in this one is their defensive front against Oklahoma State’s offense. Texas boasts what might be the best front 7 in the nation and should be well-equipped to slow down Ollie Gordon, who is undoubtedly the key to the Cowboys’ success in this game. If Gordon is unable to see consistent success on Saturday, Bowman is going to be faced with extra pressure on most of his dropbacks, which is not ideal for Oklahoma State considering that he leads the conference in turnover-worthy plays per PFF. Not only would limiting their rushing attack likely make the Cowboys less efficient in scoring situations, but it could produce turnovers from a quarterback that has more INTs than touchdown passes this season.
